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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the United States is in the longest expansion since 1850. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4 percent and job growth continues to be strong. The economy has gone through a temporary growth dip in the early part of 2017, but momentum has picked up. The economy is expected to grow at 2.1 percent in 2017 and 2018, supported by solid consumption growth and a rebound in investment. Over the next 12–18 months, personal consumer expenditure inflation is expected to slowly rise above 2 percent, before returning to the Federal Reserve’s medium-term target of 2 percent.
International Monetary Fund --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Labor Economics: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Data capture & analysis --- Income --- Labor force participation --- Labor share --- National accounts --- Prices --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- Wages --- United States
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This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern Europe. In the emerging European economies, the key determinants of shadow economy size are regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and human capital. The paper argues that a comprehensive package of reforms, focused on country-specific drivers, is needed to successfully combat the shadow economy. The menu of policies most relevant for Europe’s emerging economies include: reducing regulatory and administrative burdens, promoting transparency and improving government effectiveness, as well as improving tax compliance, automating procedures, and promoting electronic payments.
Labor --- Economics: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Informal economy --- Informal employment --- Human capital --- Public employment --- Labor force participation --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Labor market
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Regional labor market discrepancies have been widening in Belgium in the last two decades and are more evident within particular demographic groups. These developments can largely be accounted for by worse matching of people to jobs in the high-unemployment provinces. Using a structural VAR, it is also shown that labor market dynamics in Belgium produce a strong attenuating effect on employment growth, in contrast to the United States where initial labor demand shocks are expanded in the long run. After the short-run adjustment is over, there is less labor migration in Belgium than in the United States or Europe, corroborating the perception that Belgians move "too little.".
Labor --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Demand --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor force participation --- Unemployment rate --- Labor markets --- Labor force --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Belgium
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This Selected Issues paper analyzes the regional labor markets for Belgium. The paper examines labor market performance, and argues that a number of factors—poor worker-job matching, a compressed wage structure, and low geographical mobility—contribute to economic disparities. The paper describes the divergences in local labor markets, and offers potential explanations for them, including an analysis of variations in the relationship between regional unemployment rates and regional vacancy rates. The paper also describes how labor markets adjust in Belgium and in its two main regions.
Labor --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor force participation --- Unemployment rate --- Labor markets --- Labor force --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Belgium
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This Selected Issues paper provides a quantitative assessment of the long-term prospects of the Luxembourg pension system and analyzes possible reform options. The results indicate a need to adopt—at an early stage and while the problems are still relatively tractable—measures to dampen the growth of pension expenditure. Otherwise, there is a risk that rising taxes or deficits could have detrimental effects on incentives for work, investment, and innovation, and result in an unsustainable slowdown of economic growth.
Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Pensions --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Labor force participation --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Population aging --- Labor market --- Luxembourg
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This Selected Issues paper on Luxembourg reports that exemplary high growth rates and prudent fiscal policies provided the financial basis for the welfare system. Social expenditures in per capita terms, even adjusted for the large number of cross-border workers, rank highest among European Union countries, primarily driven by high replacement rates of public income support, including for unemployment benefits, the minimum guaranteed income, and pensions. Rapid social spending growth has funded substantial increases in unemployment and family benefits.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Pensions --- Labour --- income economics --- Pension spending --- Income --- Labor force participation --- Labor force --- Expenditure --- National accounts --- Labor market --- Luxembourg
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This Selected Issues paper on Germany reviews investment trends and business capital stock in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Sharp wage increases are found to boost capital formation in the short term as employers substitute capital for labor at a rate that adjusts to the higher relative price for labor. To limit the political economy biases to fiscal policy, the paper explores options to strengthen budgetary institutions, notably more transparency; stronger budgetary rules; and more room for Länder governments to mobilize revenue and tailor spending to local circumstances.
Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Unemployment --- Labor force participation --- Expenditure --- Wages --- Real exchange rates --- Employment --- Labor market --- Fiscal policy --- Germany
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The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Supply and demand. --- United States -- Economic policy -- 2009-. --- Economic History --- Business & Economics --- Inflation --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Potential output --- Output gap --- Capacity utilization --- Labor force participation --- Production --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Industrial capacity --- Labor market --- United States
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In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal times” (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.
Labor supply --- Unemployment --- Monetary policy --- Labor --- Employment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor force participation --- Unemployment rate --- Labor markets --- Labor force --- Labor market --- United States
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This paper analyzes regional labor mobility in Finland using two complementary empirical approaches: a VAR proposed by Blanchard and Katz (1992) and a gravity model. The results point to a relatively limited regional labor mobility in Finland compared to the U.S. and to EU peers. The limited regional labor mobility is associated with persistent unemployment differentials across regions. Some impediments to regional labor mobility are exogenous, such as large geographical distances across regions and relatively sparse population density, and explain about 23 percent of the variation in labor mobility. Others can be influenced by policy, such as further increase in wage flexibiltiy and reduction of housing costs. These impediments explain about 60 percent of the variation in labor mobility. Greater regional labor mobility could help reduce regional unemployment differentials, improve job matching efficiency, and remove pressures from regional fiscal redistribution.
Labor mobility --- Mobility, Labor --- Migration, Internal --- Labor supply --- Labor turnover --- Econometric models. --- Labor --- Demography --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Demographic Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Unemployment --- Labor force participation --- Unemployment rate --- Population and demographics --- Labor market --- Population --- Finland
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