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This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. This book is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, product demand, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what this book is about. Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization is endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth, and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct "what-if " analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles and bearing in mind certain caveats to conventional wisdom. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. This book provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
Business forecasting. --- causal methods --- collaborative forecasting --- forecasting --- forecast accuracy measures --- forecasting analysis --- forecasting in business --- forecasting methods --- forecasting process --- forecasting technology --- judgmental forecasting --- time-series forecasting
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The use of data collectors in energy systems is growing more and more. For example, smart sensors are now widely used in energy production and energy consumption systems. This implies that huge amounts of data are generated and need to be analyzed in order to extract useful insights from them. Such big data give rise to a number of opportunities and challenges for informed decision making. In recent years, researchers have been working very actively in order to come up with effective and powerful techniques in order to deal with the huge amount of data available. Such approaches can be used in the context of energy production and consumption considering the amount of data produced by all samples and measurements, as well as including many additional features. With them, automated machine learning methods for extracting relevant patterns, high-performance computing, or data visualization are being successfully applied to energy demand forecasting. In light of the above, this Special Issue collects the latest research on relevant topics, in particular in energy demand forecasts, and the use of advanced optimization methods and big data techniques. Here, by energy, we mean any kind of energy, e.g., electrical, solar, microwave, or wind
Research & information: general --- Technology: general issues --- deep learning --- energy demand --- temporal convolutional network --- time series forecasting --- time series --- forecasting --- exponential smoothing --- electricity demand --- residential building --- energy efficiency --- clustering --- decision tree --- time-series forecasting --- evolutionary computation --- neuroevolution --- photovoltaic power plant --- short-term forecasting --- data processing --- data filtration --- k-nearest neighbors --- regression --- autoregression --- deep learning --- energy demand --- temporal convolutional network --- time series forecasting --- time series --- forecasting --- exponential smoothing --- electricity demand --- residential building --- energy efficiency --- clustering --- decision tree --- time-series forecasting --- evolutionary computation --- neuroevolution --- photovoltaic power plant --- short-term forecasting --- data processing --- data filtration --- k-nearest neighbors --- regression --- autoregression
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This master thesis subject addresses the question of what is the best forecasting method to implement in the context of the prediction of renewable energy production, to protect assets from oversupply. The growing scientific field of Deep Learning has a great potential to be exploited to achieve this goal. This works is composed of different parts. First part introduces the goal that we want to be pursued. The second part interrogates what what are the tools needed to accomplish the goal and defines the context on which the comparison will be performed. The third part is a comparison of the models considering a default forecasting goal . The fourth part is a discussion on what might be the most relevant metric considering the main goal. From this we define two metrics, Coverage and MASE and we finally perform in fifth part a comparison using metrics and loss that have been introduced . The answer to the question of what is the better forecasting model in the defined context between all the tested models, the model that provides the better results, in terms of Coverage and MASE, is definitely the model MQCNN, which outperforms for the two metrics considered all the other presented models. MQCNN model is followed by MQRNN, DeepAr and SimpleFeedForward.
artificial intelligence --- machine learning --- forecasting --- time series forecasting --- probabilistic forecasting --- deep learning --- forecasting models --- renewable energy --- renewable energy production --- model comparison --- Ingénierie, informatique & technologie > Sciences informatiques
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The use of data collectors in energy systems is growing more and more. For example, smart sensors are now widely used in energy production and energy consumption systems. This implies that huge amounts of data are generated and need to be analyzed in order to extract useful insights from them. Such big data give rise to a number of opportunities and challenges for informed decision making. In recent years, researchers have been working very actively in order to come up with effective and powerful techniques in order to deal with the huge amount of data available. Such approaches can be used in the context of energy production and consumption considering the amount of data produced by all samples and measurements, as well as including many additional features. With them, automated machine learning methods for extracting relevant patterns, high-performance computing, or data visualization are being successfully applied to energy demand forecasting. In light of the above, this Special Issue collects the latest research on relevant topics, in particular in energy demand forecasts, and the use of advanced optimization methods and big data techniques. Here, by energy, we mean any kind of energy, e.g., electrical, solar, microwave, or wind
deep learning --- energy demand --- temporal convolutional network --- time series forecasting --- time series --- forecasting --- exponential smoothing --- electricity demand --- residential building --- energy efficiency --- clustering --- decision tree --- time-series forecasting --- evolutionary computation --- neuroevolution --- photovoltaic power plant --- short-term forecasting --- data processing --- data filtration --- k-nearest neighbors --- regression --- autoregression --- n/a
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Planning (firm) --- Mathematical statistics --- Forecasting --- Data processing --- 330.105 --- -65.012.23 --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction --- Wiskundige economie. Wiskundige methoden in de economie --- 330.105 Wiskundige economie. Wiskundige methoden in de economie --- 65.012.23 --- Forecasting - Data processing --- Economic cycles forecasting --- Time series(Multivariate-) --- Time series(Decomposition method) --- Business cycle forecasting --- Cross autocorrelations --- Multivariate analysis in time series --- Autocorrelation analysis in time series --- Filtering(Adaptive-) --- Time series --- Time series forecasting --- Box-Jenkins model --- Moving averages in statistics --- Smoothing(Exponential-)
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Modern agriculture needs to have high production efficiency combined with a high quality of obtained products. This applies to both crop and livestock production. To meet these requirements, advanced methods of data analysis are more and more frequently used, including those derived from artificial intelligence methods. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are one of the most popular tools of this kind. They are widely used in solving various classification and prediction tasks, for some time also in the broadly defined field of agriculture. They can form part of precision farming and decision support systems. Artificial neural networks can replace the classical methods of modelling many issues, and are one of the main alternatives to classical mathematical models. The spectrum of applications of artificial neural networks is very wide. For a long time now, researchers from all over the world have been using these tools to support agricultural production, making it more efficient and providing the highest-quality products possible.
Research & information: general --- Biology, life sciences --- Technology, engineering, agriculture --- artificial neural network (ANN) --- Grain weevil identification --- neural modelling classification --- winter wheat --- grain --- artificial neural network --- ferulic acid --- deoxynivalenol --- nivalenol --- MLP network --- sensitivity analysis --- precision agriculture --- machine learning --- similarity --- metric --- memory --- deep learning --- plant growth --- dynamic response --- root zone temperature --- dynamic model --- NARX neural networks --- hydroponics --- vegetation indices --- UAV --- neural network --- corn plant density --- corn canopy cover --- yield prediction --- CLQ --- GA-BPNN --- GPP-driven spectral model --- rice phenology --- EBK --- correlation filter --- crop yield prediction --- hybrid feature extraction --- recursive feature elimination wrapper --- artificial neural networks --- big data --- classification --- high-throughput phenotyping --- modeling --- predicting --- time series forecasting --- soybean --- food production --- paddy rice mapping --- dynamic time warping --- LSTM --- weakly supervised learning --- cropland mapping --- apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa) --- magnetic susceptibility (MS) --- EM38 --- neural networks --- Phoenix dactylifera L. --- Medjool dates --- image classification --- convolutional neural networks --- transfer learning --- average degree of coverage --- coverage unevenness coefficient --- optimization --- high-resolution imagery --- oil palm tree --- CNN --- Faster-RCNN --- image identification --- agroecology --- weeds --- yield gap --- environment --- health --- crop models --- soil and plant nutrition --- automated harvesting --- model application for sustainable agriculture --- remote sensing for agriculture --- decision supporting systems --- neural image analysis --- artificial neural network (ANN) --- Grain weevil identification --- neural modelling classification --- winter wheat --- grain --- artificial neural network --- ferulic acid --- deoxynivalenol --- nivalenol --- MLP network --- sensitivity analysis --- precision agriculture --- machine learning --- similarity --- metric --- memory --- deep learning --- plant growth --- dynamic response --- root zone temperature --- dynamic model --- NARX neural networks --- hydroponics --- vegetation indices --- UAV --- neural network --- corn plant density --- corn canopy cover --- yield prediction --- CLQ --- GA-BPNN --- GPP-driven spectral model --- rice phenology --- EBK --- correlation filter --- crop yield prediction --- hybrid feature extraction --- recursive feature elimination wrapper --- artificial neural networks --- big data --- classification --- high-throughput phenotyping --- modeling --- predicting --- time series forecasting --- soybean --- food production --- paddy rice mapping --- dynamic time warping --- LSTM --- weakly supervised learning --- cropland mapping --- apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa) --- magnetic susceptibility (MS) --- EM38 --- neural networks --- Phoenix dactylifera L. --- Medjool dates --- image classification --- convolutional neural networks --- transfer learning --- average degree of coverage --- coverage unevenness coefficient --- optimization --- high-resolution imagery --- oil palm tree --- CNN --- Faster-RCNN --- image identification --- agroecology --- weeds --- yield gap --- environment --- health --- crop models --- soil and plant nutrition --- automated harvesting --- model application for sustainable agriculture --- remote sensing for agriculture --- decision supporting systems --- neural image analysis
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This volume deals with recent advances in and applications of computational intelligence and advanced machine learning methods in power systems, heating and cooling systems, and gas transportation systems. The optimal coordinated dispatch of the multi-energy microgrids with renewable generation and storage control using advanced numerical methods is discussed. Forecasting models are designed for electrical insulator faults, the health of the battery, electrical insulator faults, wind speed and power, PV output power and transformer oil test parameters. The loads balance algorithm for an offshore wind farm is proposed. The information security problems in the energy internet are analyzed and attacked using information transmission contemporary models, based on blockchain technology. This book will be of interest, not only to electrical engineers, but also to applied mathematicians who are looking for novel challenging problems to focus on.
History of engineering & technology --- vacuum tank degasser --- rule extraction --- extreme learning machine --- classification and regression trees --- wind power: wind speed: T–S fuzzy model: forecasting --- linearization --- machine learning --- photovoltaic output power forecasting --- hybrid interval forecasting --- relevance vector machine --- sample entropy --- ensemble empirical mode decomposition --- high permeability renewable energy --- blockchain technology --- energy router --- QoS index of energy flow --- MOPSO algorithm --- scheduling optimization --- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System --- insulator fault forecast --- wavelet packets --- time series forecasting --- power quality --- harmonic parameter --- harmonic responsibility --- monitoring data without phase angle --- parameter estimation --- blockchain --- energy internet --- information security --- forecasting --- clustering --- energy systems --- classification --- integrated energy system --- risk assessment --- component accident set --- vulnerability --- hybrid AC/DC power system --- stochastic optimization --- renewable energy source --- Volterra models --- wind turbine --- maintenance --- fatigue --- power control --- offshore wind farm --- Interfacial tension --- transformer oil parameters --- harmonic impedance --- traction network --- harmonic impedance identification --- linear regression model --- data evolution mechanism --- cast-resin transformers --- abnormal defects --- partial discharge --- pattern recognition --- hierarchical clustering --- decision tree --- industrial mathematics --- inverse problems --- intelligent control --- artificial intelligence --- energy management system --- smart microgrid --- optimization --- Volterra equations --- energy storage --- load leveling --- cyber-physical systems --- vacuum tank degasser --- rule extraction --- extreme learning machine --- classification and regression trees --- wind power: wind speed: T–S fuzzy model: forecasting --- linearization --- machine learning --- photovoltaic output power forecasting --- hybrid interval forecasting --- relevance vector machine --- sample entropy --- ensemble empirical mode decomposition --- high permeability renewable energy --- blockchain technology --- energy router --- QoS index of energy flow --- MOPSO algorithm --- scheduling optimization --- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System --- insulator fault forecast --- wavelet packets --- time series forecasting --- power quality --- harmonic parameter --- harmonic responsibility --- monitoring data without phase angle --- parameter estimation --- blockchain --- energy internet --- information security --- forecasting --- clustering --- energy systems --- classification --- integrated energy system --- risk assessment --- component accident set --- vulnerability --- hybrid AC/DC power system --- stochastic optimization --- renewable energy source --- Volterra models --- wind turbine --- maintenance --- fatigue --- power control --- offshore wind farm --- Interfacial tension --- transformer oil parameters --- harmonic impedance --- traction network --- harmonic impedance identification --- linear regression model --- data evolution mechanism --- cast-resin transformers --- abnormal defects --- partial discharge --- pattern recognition --- hierarchical clustering --- decision tree --- industrial mathematics --- inverse problems --- intelligent control --- artificial intelligence --- energy management system --- smart microgrid --- optimization --- Volterra equations --- energy storage --- load leveling --- cyber-physical systems
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