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We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

Climate change --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Currency crises --- Demographic Economics: General --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Demography --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Emigration and Immigration --- Emigration and immigration --- Environment --- Environmental Economics --- Global Warming --- Informal sector --- International Migration --- Macroeconomics --- Migration --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Population & demography --- Population & migration geography --- Population and demographics --- Population growth --- Population

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This paper studies the impact of green fiscal rules – designed to protect climate-related spending –on debt dynamics. Simulations of green rules that exempt green spending from the rule limits for an emergingmarket economy illustrate that they can lead to unsustainable debt dynamics when the net zero emissions goal is pursued mostly using spending-based instruments (e.g., investment and subsidies). Or the rule would need to implicitly assume a large fiscal adjustment in the non-green budget, which would undermine its credibility. It will be needed to build broad public consensus for a more comprehensive fiscal strategy that tackles the difficult policy tradeoffs that will be required and takes into account long-term effects. A more appropriate mix of climate policies, including actively employing carbon pricing, should be pursued within the overall setting of fiscal and debt objectives. Developing ‘green’ medium-term fiscal frameworks would help to integrate climate change considerations into fiscal policy design in a more comprehensive manner.

Budget Systems --- Climate change --- Climate policy --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Debt sustainability --- Debts, External --- Environment --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environmental Policy --- Environmental policy --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal rules --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Global Warming --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics --- National Budget --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters

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This paper characterizes UK public spending pressures over a ten-year horizon and their implications for public deficits and debt levels. The analysis is based on a ‘bottom-up’ scenario for total public expenditure, that includes, inter alia, implementation of the NHS Long-Term Workforce Plan, public investment to support the Balanced Pathway to Net Zero, and state pension spending under the Triple Lock policy. This scenario is approximately consistent with IMF staff’s baseline projection for the medium term (to FY2029/30) shown in the 2024 Article IV consultation staff report, which assumes real growth in Departmental Expenditure Limits (DEL) of two percent per year after FY2024/25. Assuming revenue stabilizes in FY2028/29 at the level projected by IMF staff (40.8 percent of GDP), public debt does not stabilize over ten years, reaching 101.3 percent of GDP by FY2034/35. Stabilizing debt will require the primary balance to be 0.8–1.4 ppts of GDP higher per year (on average after FY2024/25), depending on the time horizon for stabilization (5 or 10 years) and the target probability of debt stabilization (50 or 75 percent).

Budget Systems --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- General Outlook and Conditions --- National Budget --- National Deficit Surplus --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- National Security and War --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Sovereign Debt --- United Kingdom

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South Africa has many elements of sound fiscal transparency practices. Based on an assessment of fiscal transparency practices against the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code, South Africa’s practices are strongest in fiscal reporting, followed by fiscal forecasting and budgeting, and weakest in fiscal risk analysis. South Africa’s Balance Sheet public sector net worth – including assumptions for the values of non-reported assets – is estimated to be 100 percent of GDP. There is room to improve South Africa’s fiscal reporting, budget transparency, and management of fiscal risks.

Accounting --- Budget planning and preparation --- Budget Systems --- Budget --- Budgeting & financial management --- Budgeting --- Finance, Public --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal reporting --- Fiscal risks --- Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, and Grants --- Intergovernmental Relations: General --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- National Budget --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Procurement --- Public Administration --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- State and Local Government --- South Africa

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We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.

Accounting --- Aging --- Bank soundness --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Commercial banks --- Currency crises --- Demographic Economics: General --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Demography --- Depository Institutions --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Finance --- Finance, Public --- Finance: General --- Financial Crises --- Financial Economics --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial institutions --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financing Policy --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Goodwill --- Industries: Financial Services --- Informal sector --- Loans --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Population & demography --- Population aging --- Population and demographics --- Population --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Value of Firms