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An emerging field in statistics, distributional regression facilitates the modelling of the complete conditional distribution, rather than just the mean. This book introduces generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) - one of the most important classes of distributional regression. Taking a broad perspective, the authors consider penalized likelihood inference, Bayesian inference, and boosting as potential ways of estimating models and illustrate their usage in complex applications. Written by the international team who developed GAMLSS, the text's focus on practical questions and problems sets it apart. Case studies demonstrate how researchers in statistics and other data-rich disciplines can use the model in their work, exploring examples ranging from fetal ultrasounds to social media performance metrics. The R code and data sets for the case studies are available on the book's companion website, allowing for replication and further study.
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The emergence of financial technologies—fintech—has become an engine of change, promising to expand access to financial services and give a boost to financial inclusion. The ownership of accounts in formal financial institutions increased from 51 percent of the world’s adult population in 2011 to 76 percent in 2021, but there is still significant variation across countries. So has the rapid growth of fintech delivered the promise of broadening financial services to the under-served populations? In this paper, I use a comprehensive dataset to investigate the relationship between fintech and financial inclusion in a panel of 84 countries over the period 2012–2020 and obtain interesting empirical insights. First, the magnitude and statistical significance of fintech on financial inclusion varies according to the type of instrument. While digital lending has a significant negative effect on financial inclusion, digital capital raising is statistically insignificant. Second, the overall impact of fintech is also statistically insignificant for the full sample, but becomes positive and statistically highly significant in developing countries. Policymakers need to develop an adequate regulatory framework that balances fostering innovation and ensuring equitable treatment of individuals and groups. This requires better financial education, strong regulatory institutions, and well-calibrated prudential regulations for a level playing field and effective supervision.
Digital financial services --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial inclusion --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial markets --- Financial sector development --- Financial services industry --- Financial services --- Financial technology (fintech) --- Fintech --- Government and the Monetary System --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Systems --- Payment Systems --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Regimes --- Standards --- Technological innovations --- Technology
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This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Consumption --- Currency crises --- Deflation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Energy prices --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Food prices --- Income --- Inflation --- Informal sector --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Measurement and Analysis of Poverty --- National accounts --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Price Level --- Prices --- Saving --- Wealth
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The Greek government has provided substantial support to households to cope with the high cost of living in 2022–2023. This paper leverages on the rich micro-level data on household consumption in the Household Budget Survey to study the distributional impact of price increases. Policy simulations suggest that targeted support measures tailored to the recipients’ needs remain the most effective way to mitigate the vulnerable households’ income loss.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Consumption --- Cost and standard of living --- Data Access --- Deflation --- Economics --- Household consumption --- Income --- Inflation --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- National accounts --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Price Level --- Prices --- Purchasing power --- Saving --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Wealth --- Greece
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We present the current status of labor market gender gaps in The Gambia and examine the macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing the gaps. We also study the impacts of high costs of living and the determinants of poverty. Closing labor market gender gaps, would significantly boost GDP, government revenues, women’s earnings, and reduce income inequality. High food costs adversely affect the levels of consumption in the bottom four quartiles of the income distribution. Lack of access to finance, living in rural areas, lack of employment, low levels of education, and exposure to climate shocks contribute to higher poverty levels.
Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Consumption --- Deflation --- Economics of Gender --- Economics --- Education --- Education: General --- Gender diversity --- Gender inequality --- Gender Studies --- Gender studies --- Gender studies, gender groups --- Gender --- Inflation --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Measurement and Analysis of Poverty --- Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- National accounts --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Price Level --- Prices --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Saving --- Sex discrimination --- Sex role --- Social discrimination & equal treatment --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Wealth --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Women & girls --- Women --- Women's Studies --- Gambia, The
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