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2024 (5)

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Book
Generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape : a distributional regression approach, with applications
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 9781009410076 1009410075 1009410059 9781009410069 Year: 2024 Publisher: Cambridge ; New York, NY : Cambridge University Press,

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Abstract

An emerging field in statistics, distributional regression facilitates the modelling of the complete conditional distribution, rather than just the mean. This book introduces generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) - one of the most important classes of distributional regression. Taking a broad perspective, the authors consider penalized likelihood inference, Bayesian inference, and boosting as potential ways of estimating models and illustrate their usage in complex applications. Written by the international team who developed GAMLSS, the text's focus on practical questions and problems sets it apart. Case studies demonstrate how researchers in statistics and other data-rich disciplines can use the model in their work, exploring examples ranging from fetal ultrasounds to social media performance metrics. The R code and data sets for the case studies are available on the book's companion website, allowing for replication and further study.


Book
Promise (Un)kept? Fintech and Financial Inclusion
Author:
ISBN: 9798400281976 Year: 2024 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The emergence of financial technologies—fintech—has become an engine of change, promising to expand access to financial services and give a boost to financial inclusion. The ownership of accounts in formal financial institutions increased from 51 percent of the world’s adult population in 2011 to 76 percent in 2021, but there is still significant variation across countries. So has the rapid growth of fintech delivered the promise of broadening financial services to the under-served populations? In this paper, I use a comprehensive dataset to investigate the relationship between fintech and financial inclusion in a panel of 84 countries over the period 2012–2020 and obtain interesting empirical insights. First, the magnitude and statistical significance of fintech on financial inclusion varies according to the type of instrument. While digital lending has a significant negative effect on financial inclusion, digital capital raising is statistically insignificant. Second, the overall impact of fintech is also statistically insignificant for the full sample, but becomes positive and statistically highly significant in developing countries. Policymakers need to develop an adequate regulatory framework that balances fostering innovation and ensuring equitable treatment of individuals and groups. This requires better financial education, strong regulatory institutions, and well-calibrated prudential regulations for a level playing field and effective supervision.


Book
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2024 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.


Book
The Cost-of-Living Crisis : Impact and Policy Support to Households, Evidence from Micro-Level Data: Greece
Authors: ---
ISBN: 9798400266775 Year: 2024 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The Greek government has provided substantial support to households to cope with the high cost of living in 2022–2023. This paper leverages on the rich micro-level data on household consumption in the Household Budget Survey to study the distributional impact of price increases. Policy simulations suggest that targeted support measures tailored to the recipients’ needs remain the most effective way to mitigate the vulnerable households’ income loss.


Book
Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Gender Gaps : The Gambia
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 9798400268250 Year: 2024 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We present the current status of labor market gender gaps in The Gambia and examine the macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing the gaps. We also study the impacts of high costs of living and the determinants of poverty. Closing labor market gender gaps, would significantly boost GDP, government revenues, women’s earnings, and reduce income inequality. High food costs adversely affect the levels of consumption in the bottom four quartiles of the income distribution. Lack of access to finance, living in rural areas, lack of employment, low levels of education, and exposure to climate shocks contribute to higher poverty levels.

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