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Historiography --- Cycles --- Historiography.

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The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.

Business Fluctuations --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation

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Combien de temps faut-il à un oeuf pour éclore ? Les chiens ont-ils vraiment besoin de plus de sommeil que les humains ? Quel animal a la parade nuptiale la plus longue ? Combien de temps faut-il à une forêt pour se régénérer après un incendie ? Les cycles et les rythmes qui régissent la nature sont d’une étrangeté fascinante. Un éphémère vivant seulement une journée peut côtoyer un arbre de plus de 4 800 ans, et un requin de 350 ans se sentira bien jeune face à une méduse immortelle. De même, certains cactus ne croissent que de 0,05 millimètre par jour quand le bambou grandit d’environ 1 mètre toutes les 24 heures. Illustré d’infographies, de photos et de graphiques didactiques, ce livre décrit les nombreux aspects des échelles de temps dans la nature, que ce soit au sein des règnes animal et végétal, des écosystèmes ou même des ères géologiques. L’ouvrage aborde de nombreux thèmes : croissance et chute de la biodiversité, fonctionnement de l’évolution, durée de gestation des animaux, espérance de vie des espèces, rythmes de sommeil et d’hibernation, durée et fréquence des migrations, et bien d’autres encore ! Des anecdotes et des informations scientifiques captivantes

Sciences de la vie --- Life sciences. --- Zoology. --- Natural history --- Plants --- Animals --- Life cycles (Biology) --- Biotic communities. --- Ecology. --- Sciences de la vie. --- Zoologie. --- Histoire naturelle. --- Plantes et histoire --- Animaux --- Cycles biologiques. --- Écosystèmes. --- Écologie. --- History. --- History --- Histoire.

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In response to the 2016 referendum on EU Membership and the ensuing uncertainty as to the eventual consequences of Brexit, the Bank of England (BoE) adopted various methods of influencing market rates, including conventional, unconventional monetary policy measures and communications on forward guidance. To investigate the effectiveness of BoE’s communication, we first decompose long-dated yields into a risk neutral and term premium component. Text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee minutes is then used to measure the stance of policy, attitudes to QE and Brexit. We show that the Bank’s communication strategy acted to complement the stance of monetary policy, which had responded by lowering Bank rate and expanding QE, and acted to lower the term premium that might otherwise have risen in response to Brexit uncertainty.

Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- United Kingdom

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The paper explores the nexus between the financial and business cycles in a semi-structural New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, an active banking sector, and an endogenous macroprudential policy reaction function. We parametrize the model for Luxembourg through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features dynamic properties that align with theoretical priors and empirical evidence and displays sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities, especially for credit indicators. We find that the credit gap, which remained positive during COVID-19 amid continued favorable financial conditions and policy support, had been closing by mid-2022. Model-based forecasts using data up to 2022Q2 and conditional on the October 2022 WEO projections for the Euro area suggest that Luxembourg's business and credit cycles would deteriorate until late 2024. Based on these insights about the current and projected positions in the credit cycle, the model can guide policymakers on how to adjust the macroprudential policy stance. Policy simulations suggest that the weights given to measures of credit-to-GDP and asset price gaps in the macroprudential policy rule should be well-calibrated to avoid unwarranted volatility in the policy response.

Asset requirements --- Banks and Banking --- Banks --- Business cycles --- Business Fluctuations --- Capital adequacy requirements --- Countercyclical capital buffers --- Credit cycles --- Credit --- Cycles --- Depository Institutions --- Economic growth --- Economic policy --- Economywide Country Studies: Europe --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial services law & regulation --- Government and the Monetary System --- Macroeconomics --- Macroprudential policy --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- Mortgages --- Payment Systems --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Regimes --- Standards