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This paper examines the significance and impact of broad-based and industrial policies on economic diversification in developing economies, supported by a literature review, case studies, and IMF analyses. Economic diversification entails shifting from traditional sectors, like agriculture and mining, to a variety of high-quality services and sectors. This transition is crucial for adapting to global market fluctuations and promoting sustainable growth and improved living standards. A literature review, including many IMF contributions, reveals a strong correlation between economic diversification and improved macroeconomic performance in developing countries, such as faster economic growth and higher incomes per capita. Factors influencing economic diversification include macroeconomic stability, infrastructure quality, workforce skills, credit access, regulatory environment, and income equality. Six case studies highlight the experiences of Costa Rica, Gabon, Georgia, India, Senegal, and Vietnam, demonstrating that successful diversification strategies require a long-term commitment and effective broad-based policies. Industrial policies can support diversification by addressing market failures, but they must be well-designed and effectively implemented. Common lessons include the necessity of maintaining macroeconomic stability, investing in human capital, and fostering competition. Sector-specific mechanisms like Special Economic Zones should be used cautiously, emphasizing underlying bottlenecks and minimizing fiscal costs. Country-specific insights include Costa Rica's strategic policy shift towards export orientation, Gabon's reduced dependence on oil, Georgia's market-friendly policies, India's skilled labor and software clusters, Senegal's infrastructure and business environment improvements, and Vietnam's transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy. The IMF's engagement in diversification emphasizes improving human capital, infrastructure, reducing trade barriers, and promoting international trade integration. Policymakers, researchers, and international organizations increasingly recognize the importance of economic diversification for resilient, sustainable, and inclusive growth, requiring nuanced policy interventions tailored to each country's context and capabilities.
Balance of payments --- Economic Development: General --- Economic growth --- Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Finance --- Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope --- Foreign direct investment --- Industrial Organization: General --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International economics --- International institutions --- International Investment --- International organization --- International Organizations --- International trade --- Investments, Foreign --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Macroeconomics --- Political Economy --- Political economy --- Public Policy --- Service exports --- Trade: General
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The current wave of technological revolution is changing the way policies work. This paper examines the growth and distributional implications of three policies when “robot' capital (a broad definition of robots, Artificial Intelligence, computers, big data, digitalization, networks, sensors and servos) is introduced in a neoclassical growth model. 1) cuts to the corporate tax rate; 2) increases in education spending; and 3) increases in infrastructure investment. We find that incorporating “robot' capital into the model does make a big difference to policy outcomes: the trickle-down effects of corporate tax cuts on unskilled wages are attenuated, and the advantages of investment in infrastructure, and especially in education, are bigger. Based on our calibrations grounded on new empirical estimates, infrastructure investment and corporate tax cuts dominate investment in education in a "traditional" economy. However, in an economy with “robots” the infrastructure investment dominates corporate tax cuts, while investment in education tends to produce the highest welfare gains of all. The specific results, of course, may depend on the exact modeling of the technological change, but our main results remain valid and can provide more accurate welfare rankings.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Automation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Corporate & business tax --- Corporate Taxation --- Corporations --- Currency crises --- Diffusion Processes --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Education --- Income economics --- Informal sector --- Infrastructure --- Innovation --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor market --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Occupational Licensing --- Professional Labor Markets --- Research and Development --- Robotics --- Skilled labor --- Taxation --- Technological Change --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technology --- Unskilled labor --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General
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