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Fluctuations (Physics)

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Local weather shocks have been shown to affect local economic output, however, little is known about their propagation through production networks. Using a six-sector global dataset over the past fifty years, this paper examines the effect of weather fluctuations and extreme weather events on sectoral economic production and the transmission of weather shocks across sectors, countries and over time. I document that agriculture is the most harmed sector by heat shocks, droughts and cyclones. Using input-output interlinkages, I find that sectors at later stages of the supply chain suffer from substantial and persistent losses over time due to domestic and foreign heat shocks in other sectors. A counterfactual analysis of the average annual output loss accounting for heat shocks across trade partners shows a substantial underestimation of the economic cost of temperature increases since 2000.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics

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Cross-border migration can act as an important adjustment mechanism to country-specific shocks. Yet, depending on who moves, it can have unintended consequences for business cycle stability. This paper argues that the skill composition of migration plays a critical role. When migration flows become more concentrated in skilled labor an important trade-off arises. On the one hand, migration releases unemployment pressures for the origin countries. On the other hand, it generates negative compositional effects (the so-called “brain drain” effects) and skill imbalances, which reduce supply capacity in origin countries. This paper analyses quantitatively the impact of cyclical migration in an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous migration flows, trade linkages, search and matching frictions, and skill heterogeneity. I apply this framework to the case of the Greek emigration wave following the European Debt Crisis. What I find is that emigration flows implied strong negative effects for capital formation, leading to more than a 15 percentage point drop in investment. Rather than stabilizing the Greek business cycle, labor mobility led to a deeper and more protracted recession.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Emigration and Immigration --- Labor --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- International Migration --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Professional Labor Markets --- Occupational Licensing --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Migration --- Population and demographics --- Labor markets --- Labor market frictions --- Skilled labor --- Labor mobility --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Emigration and immigration --- Labor market --- Business cycles

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This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Economic growth --- Business cycles --- Credit --- Money --- Consumer credit --- Credit booms --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory

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"Heat Exposure and Human Health in the Context of Climate Change introduces the effects of heat on human health, especially in the context of climate change. The book utilizes case studies in addition to foundational knowledge and theory to demonstrate the epidemiological impact of heat, also presenting solutions for addressing this important public health issue. It is clearly organized to aid in understanding key questions such as why and how heat exposure impacts health, who are most vulnerable to heat exposure, and how to reduce the impacts of heat exposure. Providing guidance on public policy development as well as individual protection, this book is an interdisciplinary resource for researchers and policymakers in both public health and environmental science fields."--

Climatic changes --- Heat --- Health aspects. --- Physiological effect. --- Heat stress (Biology) --- High temperatures --- Hyperthermia --- Changes, Climatic --- Changes in climate --- Climate change --- Climate change science --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Climatology --- Climate change mitigation --- Global environmental change --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- Physiological effect --- Environmental aspects