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In developing economies, a shift to working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic varies substantially. An increase in teleworking days per week ranges from 0.7 to 17.6 percentage points across 10 developing countries covered by an online survey to about 500 respondents per country. An estimated income discount associated with telework disappeared temporarily at the onset of the pandemic. A calibrated model indicates that workers’ preferences to telework may largely depend on their educational attainments. Whether telework will sustain in these countries could depend on obstacles to telework, particularly for workers with less education, and a degree of economy-wide externality.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Time Allocation and Labor Supply --- Economic Development: Human Resources --- Human Development --- Income Distribution --- Migration --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Health Behavior --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Education: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Education --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Income --- National accounts --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Communicable diseases

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Finance: General --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Investments: Metals --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Finance --- International institutions --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Asset and liability management --- International organization --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Commodities --- Technology --- Liquidity --- Economics --- International agencies --- Gold --- Silver --- Financial services industry --- France

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Finance & Development, March 2023.

Finance: General --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Investments: Metals --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Finance --- International institutions --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Asset and liability management --- International organization --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Commodities --- Technology --- Liquidity --- Economics --- International agencies --- Gold --- Silver --- Financial services industry --- France

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This study seeks to construct a basic reinforcement learning-based AI-macroeconomic simulator. We use a deep RL (DRL) approach (DDPG) in an RBC macroeconomic model. We set up two learning scenarios, one of which is deterministic without the technological shock and the other is stochastic. The objective of the deterministic environment is to compare the learning agent's behavior to a deterministic steady-state scenario. We demonstrate that in both deterministic and stochastic scenarios, the agent's choices are close to their optimal value. We also present cases of unstable learning behaviours. This AI-macro model may be enhanced in future research by adding additional variables or sectors to the model or by incorporating different DRL algorithms.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- Economic Theory --- Financial Risk Management --- Computational Techniques --- Quantitative Policy Modeling --- Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Labor Economics: General --- Expectations --- Speculations --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Artificial intelligence --- Machine learning --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Finance --- Technology --- Labor --- Rational expectations --- Economic theory --- Debt relief --- Asset and liability management --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor economics --- Debts, External

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Machine learning models are becoming increasingly important in the prediction of economic crises. The models, however, use datasets comprising a large number of predictors (features) which impairs model interpretability and their ability to provide adequate guidance in the design of crisis prevention and mitigation policies. This paper introduces surrogate data models as dimensionality reduction tools in large-scale crisis prediction models. The appropriateness of this approach is assessed by their application to large-scale crisis prediction models developed at the IMF. The results are consistent with economic intuition and validate the use of surrogates as interpretability tools.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- Banks and Banking --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial Crises --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Machine learning --- Finance --- Financial crises --- Early warning systems --- Technology --- Yield curve --- Financial services --- Deposit rates --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Crisis management --- Interest rates --- United States