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The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a large disruption of global supply chains. This paper studies the implications of supply chain disruptions for inflation and monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa. Increases in supply chain pressures have had a sizeable impact on headline, food, and tradable inflation for a panel of 29 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2022. Our findings suggest that central banks can stabilize inflation and output more efficiently by monitoring global supply chains and adjusting the monetary policy stance before the disruptions have fully passed through into all inflation components. The gains from monitoring supply chain disruptions are particularly large for open economies which tend to experience outsized second-round effects on the prices of non-tradable goods and services.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Economic Theory --- Banks and Banking --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Business Cycles --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Banking --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Food prices --- Oil prices --- Central bank policy rate --- Financial services --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Supply and demand --- Interest rates --- United States

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Since the start of the war in Ukraine, electricity prices in Europe have increased and become more volatile. This coupled with unreliable domestic electricity supply has led to significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. This paper presents several scenarios characterized by alternative assumptions for European electricity prices and domestic electricity production in 2023 in order to gauge their potential impact on the budget and the economy. It also discusses the medium-term benefits, including in terms of increased energy security and reduced emissions and pollution, of diversifying domestic electricity generation away from lignite.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Investments: Energy --- Industries: Energy --- Taxation --- Public Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Alternative Energy Sources --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Government Policy --- Energy Forecasting --- Electric Utilities --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Energy industries & utilities --- International economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Commodities --- Economic sectors --- Taxes --- Expenditure --- International trade --- International agencies --- Electric utilities --- Gas industry --- Tariff --- Expenditures, Public --- Kosovo, Republic of

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We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: Commodities --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Commodity Markets --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Agriculture: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Commodities --- Trade barriers --- International trade --- Commodity trade --- Trade balance --- Agricultural commodities --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial products --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade --- Farm produce --- China, People's Republic of