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The volatility machine : emerging economies and the threat of financial collapse
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ISBN: 0199881715 1280835257 0195349482 0197710700 Year: 2023 Publisher: Oxford : Oxford University Press,

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This volume presents a radically different argument for what has caused and likely will continue to cause the collapse of emerging market economies. It explains how capital structures in emerging markets can be correlated or inverted.


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Pawned states : state building in the era of international finance
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ISBN: 0691231516 Year: 2023 Publisher: Princeton : Princeton University Press,

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In the nineteenth century, many developing countries turned to the credit houses of Europe for sovereign loans to balance their books and weather major fiscal shocks such as war. This reliance on external public finance offered emerging nations endless opportunities to overcome barriers to growth, but it also enabled rulers to bypass critical stages in institution building and political development. 'Pawned States' reveals how easy access to foreign lending at early stages of state building has led to chronic fiscal instability and weakened state capacity in the developing world.


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Bonds of war : how Civil War financial agents sold the world on the Union
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ISBN: 9798890862594 1469666618 Year: 2023 Publisher: Chapel Hill : The University of North Carolina Press,

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How does one package and sell confidence in the stability of a nation riven by civil strife? This was the question that loomed before the Philadelphia financial house of Jay Cooke & Company, entrusted by the US government with an unprecedented sale of bonds to finance the Union war effort in the early days of the American Civil War. How the government and its agents marketed these bonds revealed a version of the war the public was willing to buy and buy into, based not just in the full faith and credit of the United States but also in the success of its armies and its long-term vision for open markets. From Maine to California, and in foreign halls of power and economic influence, thousands of agents were deployed to sell a clear message: Union victory was unleashing the American economy itself.


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Are We Heading for Another Debt Crisis in Low-Income Countries? Debt Vulnerabilities: Today vs the pre-HIPC Era
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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There are growing concerns that 25 years after the launch of the HIPC debt relief initiative, many low-income countries are again facing high debt vulnerabilities. This paper compares debt vulnerabilities in LICs today versus those on the eve of the HIPC Initiative and examines challenges to a similarly designed debt-relief framework. While solvency and liquidity indicators in most LICs have steadily worsened in recent years, they remain substantially better on average than they were on the eve of HIPC in the mid-1990s. This said, if current trends persist, debt vulnerabilities in LICs could (but would not necessarily) reach levels comparable to the pre-HIPC era over the medium- to long-term. Today’s more complex creditor landscape makes coordination challenging. It is therefore essential for countries to reduce today’s debt burdens promptly through economic reform, lowering the cost of financing, and debt restructuring on a case-by-case basis. The international community should also step up efforts to improve debt restructuring processes, including the G20 Common Framework, to ensure that debt relief is delivered in a timely and efficient manner where it is needed.


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Restructuring Domestic Sovereign Debt: An Analytical Illustration
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Sovereign domestic debt restructurings have become more common in recent years and touched upon a growing share of total public debt. This paper offers a simple framework for policymakers to think about the decision whether to restructure domestic sovereign debt as part of an effort to reduce overall public indebtedness. It also highlights a rather wide range of technical, legal, and operational issues a sovereign may face while restructuring domestic debt. As expected, factors such as debt reduction required to achieve sustainability, fiscal savings from a restructuring, and economic costs of a restructuring are key inputs into the decision making regarding a restructuring, but so are factors such as the composition of debt, financial stability costs, and crisis preparedness, all of which are discussed in the paper.


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Ghana : Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper highlights Ghana’s Request for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The authorities’ economic program, supported by the ECF-arrangement, builds on the government’s post-coronavirus disease 2019 Program for Economic Growth, which aims to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability and includes wide-ranging reforms to build resilience and lay the foundation for stronger and more inclusive growth. Securing timely debt restructuring agreements with external creditors will be essential for the successful implementation of the new ECF arrangement. Key policies under the authorities’ program include large and frontloaded fiscal consolidation to bring public finances back on a sustainable path, complemented by efforts to protect the vulnerable. The adjustment effort will be supported by ambitious structural reforms in the areas of tax policy, revenue administration, and public financial management, as well as steps to address weaknesses in the energy and cocoa sectors. An ambitious structural reform agenda is being put in place to reinvigorate private sector-led growth by improving the business environment, governance, and productivity.


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Guinea-Bissau : Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents Guinea-Bissau’s Request for a Three-year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The ECF-supported program aims to anchor macroeconomic stability, putting the budget back on track and ensuring medium-term debt sustainability, while continuing progress on structural reforms initiated under the 2021–22 Staff Monitored Program. It will provide a framework to assist the authorities in designing and implementing effective policies to better address development challenges such as enhanced education and health systems, promote inclusive growth, and reduce poverty. Fiscal policy will aim to reduce the deficit and debt in line with the West Africa Economic and Monetary Union convergence criteria over the medium term through revenue mobilization, expenditure rationalization, mitigation of fiscal risks and prudent borrowing. Further action to enhance governance including to advance Anti Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism/effectiveness will improve the management of fiscal resources and public investment, increase transparency and accountability, and counter corruption. The program will also help catalyze much needed donor financing, particularly in the form of grants and concessional loans, and support the reduction of debt vulnerabilities.


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Jordan : Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents Jordan’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The IMF-supported program remains firmly on track, with key quantitative targets met and strong performance on structural benchmarks, reflecting the authorities’ strong ownership. Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s economy is projected to continue to grow this year at 2.6 percent, and inflation has remained relatively low and is declining. The Jordanian authorities have managed to successfully navigate recent external shocks and maintain macro-economic stability in an uncertain and challenging environment. Thanks to the steadfast implementation of prudent fiscal and monetary policies, fiscal consolidation is on track, capital market access has been maintained, and inflation has remained relatively low and is declining, while reserve coverage is strong. Monetary policy has responded quickly to U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes and remains focused on safeguarding the peg and maintaining strong reserve buffers.


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Republic of Moldova : Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for Waiver of Applicability for Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses Republic of Moldova’s Second Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for Waiver of Applicability for Performance Criteria. Spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on Moldova, with disruptions of energy supply putting additional pressure on the Moldovan economy. The IMF-supported program has helped catalyze significant external financing to help Moldova bridge immediate financing needs. As risks remain high and the outlook is subject to extreme uncertainty, maintaining a strong policy momentum will be critical to secure additional grant and concessional financing from donors, needed to withstand the shocks, reduce reliance on expensive short-term domestic financing, and preserve fiscal sustainability. The authorities’ near-term policy priorities are appropriately focused on safeguarding energy security, protecting the most vulnerable from the cost-of-living crisis, and preserving macrofinancial stability. Going forward, maintaining an appropriate policy mix will be critical to withstand downside risks, should they materialize, while pursuing longer term developmental objectives.


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2023 Handbook of IMF Facilities for Low-Income Countries.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Handbook provides guidance to staff on the IMF’s concessional financial facilities and non-financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), defined here as all countries eligible to obtain concessional financing from the Fund. It updates the previous version of the Handbook that was published in December 2017 (IMF, 2017e) by incorporating modifications resulting from the 2018–19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries and Review of the Financing of the Fund’s Concessional Assistance and Debt Relief to Low-Income Member Countries (IMF, 2019a, b), approved by the Board in May 2019; the reforms introduced in 2021 on the basis of the Board paper Fund Concessional Financial Support for Low-Income Countries—Responding to the Pandemic (IMF, 2021a), approved in July 2021; and a number of other recent Board papers. Designed as a comprehensive reference tool for program work on LICs, the Handbook also refers, in summary form, to a range of relevant policies that apply more generally to IMF members. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board decisions including the terms of the various LIC Trust Instruments that have been adopted by the Board, remain the primary legal authority on the matters covered in the Handbook.

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