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We study how the social transmission of public news influences investors' beliefs and securities markets. Using data on investor social networks, we find that earnings announcements from firms in higher-centrality locations generate stronger immediate price, volatility, and trading volume reactions. Post announcement, such firms experience weaker price drift and faster volatility decay but higher and more persistent volume. This evidence suggests that greater social connectedness promotes timely incorporation of news into prices, but also opinion divergence and excessive trading. We propose the social churning hypothesis and present supporting evidence with granular data from StockTwits messages and household trading records.
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Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresses the challenge of sample size even when major disasters are rare. Our methodology avoids look-ahead bias and addresses semantic shifts. War discourse positively predicts market returns, with an out-of-sample R² of 1.35%, and negatively predicts returns on short-term government and investment-grade corporate bonds. The predictive power of war discourse increases in more recent time periods.
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A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected asset returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section of returns across test assets derived from both traditional and machine learning construction techniques, and spanning 138 anomalies. Our findings are consistent with assets that are good hedges for war risk receiving lower risk premia, or with assets that are more positively sensitive to war prospects being more overvalued. The return premium on the war factor is incremental to standard effects.
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