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The Systemic Impact of Debt Default in a Multilayered Global Network Model
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The world has become more interconnected over the past few decades. Against this backdrop, economic and financial contagion following adverse shocks can have a severe impact on the global economy. How systemic can the effects of contagion be? What specific transmission channels are involved? What is their relative importance? We address these questions using a multilayered global network model of contagion that simulates the impact of sovereign debt default on the global economy. We also develop a measure of global systemic risk and use bank stress testing techniques to quantify the systemic impact of the shock and the extent of contagion on the global economy. Our model shows that economic and financial contagion are highly non-linear, and many bystander economies can experience significant negative effects as the initial default is spread through the network. This suggests that many economies might be systemically more important than what conventional measures of size or openness might suggest.


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Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Climate change is an existential threat to the global economy and financial markets. There is a large body of literature documenting potential macroeconomic consequences of climate change, but firm-level empirical research on how climate change affects the performance of firms remains scarce. This paper aims to close this gap by empirically investigating the impact of climate change vulnerability on corporate performance using a large panel dataset of more than 3.3 million nonfinancial firms from 24 developing countries over the period 1997–2019. We find that nonfinancial firms operating in countries with greater vulnerability to climate change tend to experience difficulty in access to debt financing even at higher interest rates, while being less productive and profitable relative to firms in countries with lower vulnerability to climate change. We confirm these findings with alternative measures of climate change vulnerability. Furthermore, partitioning the sample reveals that these effects are significantly greater for smaller firms, especially in high-risk sectors and countries and countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.


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Economic Scarring: Channels and Policy Implications
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper documents the existence of medium-to-long term output losses following large crises using panel data that cover 192 countries from 1970 to 2015 and shows that the magnitudes of economic scarring depend on the nature of the shock, economic activity, and pre-crisis conditions. It also provides a thorough review of potential channels that can lead to scarring and presents novel empirical evidence on the significance of supply-side channels using cross-country sectoral-level data. Finally, the paper discusses policy implications based on the empirical findings.


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Falling Use of Cash and Demand for Retail Central Bank Digital Currency
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Cash use in most countries is falling slowly. On the margin, younger adults favor cash substitutes over cash. For older adults it is the reverse. Revealed preference tied to a changing population age structure seems to be the main influence on the demand for cash and why it is falling. Cash use may continue to fall, and card use (the main cash substitute) may fall by more, if CBDC is issued. The extent of this reduction depends on the demand for retail CBDC and the incentives (primarily transaction fees) that can play a determining role in CBDC adoption and use.


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Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks depending on the origin and ultimate destination of value added and the intermediate shipments involved. For example, the model shows that in response to a dollar appreciation triggered by a US interest rate increase, direct bilateral trade between non-US countries contracts more than global value chain oriented trade which feeds US final demand, and exports to the US decline much more when measured in gross as opposed to value added terms. We use granular data on GVCs at the sector level to document empirical evidence in favor of these key predictions of the model.


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Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We assess the supply-side effects on European Union (EU) economic activity if Russian gas imports were to suddenly cease. Unlike other studies, we account for the global scope of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. In the absence of frictions, an open-economy, multi-sector general equilibrium model suggests that the adverse economic impact on the EU shrinks five-fold if integration with the global LNG market is considered. While greater integration provides a buffer for the EU through trade, the flip side is that other LNG importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and Pakistan) see adverse effects from higher prices.


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Instant Payments: Regulatory Innovation and Payment Substitution Across Countries
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Instant, or fast, payments are credit transfers completed and settled within seconds or minutes. They have low costs, reduce payment risk, and have significantly replaced the use of cash, cards, or check and direct debit payments. We note the role played by regulators in promoting instant payments and identify instances of significant payment instrument substitution across 12 advanced and emerging market economies. This substitution reflects the realized demand for attributes offered by instant payments. As these attributes are quite similar to those for CBDC, the demand for retail CBDC (if issued) may be less compelling.


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For Whom the Bell Tolls: Climate Change and Inequality
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Climate change is the defining challenge of our time with complex and evolving dynamics. The effects of climate change on economic output and financial stability have received considerable attention, but there has been much less focus on the relationship between climate change and income inequality. In this paper, we provide new evidence on the association between climate change and income inequality, using a large panel of 158 countries during the period 1955–2019. We find that an increase in climate change vulnerability is positively associated with rising income inequality. More interestingly, splitting the sample into country groups reveals a considerable contrast in the impact of climate change on income inequality. While climate change vulnerability has no statistically significant effect on income distribution in advanced economies, the coefficient on climate change vulnerability is seven times greater and statistically highly significant in the case of developing countries due largely to weaker capacity for climate change adaptation and mitigation.


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How Far It Is to Tomorrow...
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ISBN: 9783030966515 Year: 2022 Publisher: Cham Springer International Publishing :Imprint: Birkhäuser

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How far it is to tomorrow ... : reflections of an eminent Russian applied mathematician 1917-2000
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ISBN: 303096650X 3030966518 9783030966508 Year: 2022 Publisher: Cham, Switzerland : Springer International Publishing,

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This is a translated autobiography of applied mathematician N. N. Moiseev, providing an insider's view of the history of the Soviet Union from its founding in 1917 to its collapse in 1991, as well as a little of the aftermath. We see vividly the precariousness of life just after the October Revolution; his happy family life during the years 1921-28 of Lenin's New Economic Policy; the subsequent destruction of his family by Stalin's regime; his trials as a social outcast; his student days at Moscow State University; his experiences as a Soviet Air Force Engineer in World War II, including sorties as a gunner and a brush with an NKVD agent; post-war euphoria, marriage, and another round of ostracism; and then the vicissitudes of a highly varied academic career. Here we meet many famous Soviet and Western engineers and scientists. The last several chapters are devoted more to wide-ranging reflections on God, philosophy, science, communism, modelling the biosphere, and the threat of nuclear winter. His thoughts concerning the impending and then final collapse of the USSR, as well as hopes for Russia's future, conclude the journey through Moiseev's life.

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