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This paper reviews Germany’s Financial System Stability Assessment report. The financial sector has weathered the impact of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine relatively well so far, but risks remain elevated. The Financial System Assessment Program (FSAP) solvency stress tests show that the significant institutions and less significant institutions are overall resilient to an adverse scenario. The main risks to financial stability relate to a global resurgence of coronavirus disease 2019 with extended supply chain disruptions, a scarcity of gas and oil, and de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the United States and advanced Europe. Consistent with the authorities’ findings, the FSAP found small vulnerabilities from climate transition risks to the banking system. Macroprudential policy is being tightened but rising cyclical vulnerabilities will require additional action. Good progress had been made in strengthening the microprudential frameworks for banking and insurance since the 2016 FSAP. The system of Deposit Guarantee Schemes/Institutional Protection Schemes needs reform, which should be informed by a review of the distortions resulting from depositors’ high level of protection guaranteed under the current regime.

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In this book, Petra Schönemann-Behrens provides an informative review of the life and times of Alfred Fried, a significant if underappreciated German pacifist of the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century. In response to the militarism and international anarchy of the European states, Fried developed his unique notion of "revolutionary" or "scientific" pacifism, differentiating it from reform pacifism, in order to address the material causes of war. As theorist, practitioner, and journalist, Fried advanced radical concepts at the time: the formation of a pan-European union, the establishment of an effective international court of arbitration, the elimination of a secretive diplomatic class, and the expansion of international economic and cultural cooperation. This work is translated after the German work Alfred H. Fried: Friedensaktivist - Nobelpreisträger published by Römerhof Verlag, in 2011.

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The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption patterns significantly in a short period of time. However, official inflation statistics take time to reflect these changes in the weights of the CPI consumption basket. Using credit card data for the UK and Germany, we document how consumption patterns changed and we quantify the resulting inflation bias. We find that consumers experienced a higher level of inflation at the beginning of the pandemic than what a fixed-weight inflation (or the official-weight) index suggests and a lower inflation thereafter. We also show that weights can differ among age groups as well as between in-person and online spenders. These differences affect the purchasing power of the population heterogeneously. We conclude that CPI inflation indexes based on frequently updated weights can provide useful inputs to assess changes in the cost of living and, if shifts in consumption patterns prove persistent, determine the need to introduce new official weights and inform monetary policy.

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We estimate that the recent surge in international fossil fuel prices will raise European households’ cost of living in 2022 by close to 7 percent of consumption on average. Household burdens vary significantly across and within countries, but in most cases they are regressive. Policymakers have mostly responded to the shock with broad-based price-suppressing measures, including subsidies, tax reductions, and price controls. Going forward, the policy emphasis should shift rapidly towards allowing price signals to operate more freely and providing income relief to the vulnerable. The surge in energy prices will encourage energy conservation and investments in renewable energy, but the manyfold rise in natural gas prices could lead to a persistent switch towards coal. To ensure steady progress towards carbon emissions reduction goals, authorities could use the opportunity to strengthen carbon pricing when global fossil fuel prices decline in the future. Non-price incentives for investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy should also be enhanced, as envisaged in the RePowerEU plan.

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This Technical Assistance Report on Montenegro highlights Public Investment Management Assessment. Due to the importance of the tourism sector, the pandemic has had a deep economic impact. In addition, as government debt already exceeds one hundred percent of gross domestic product, fiscal space to increase public investment is limited. In this context, a strengthened public investment management (PIM) framework would contribute to maximize its impact on economic growth. Recent trends in capital expenditures and capital stock signal that there is room for improving the efficiency of public investments in Montenegro. The authorities have introduced several reforms in recent years to strengthen the PIM framework. Through the reform efforts, Montenegro has developed a stronger PIM framework but there is still room for improvement. Notwithstanding these efforts, there is significant room to strengthen public investment management in Montenegro. IMF estimates indicate that there is an efficiency gap of 35 percent. Public investment could better support the economic recovery if specific actions are taken to improve the PIM framework.

Germany