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In the last 20 years, the People's Republic of China (hereafter, "China") has strengthened its position on the global stage as an energy innovator, as illustrated by the stories of solar power and, more recently, electric mobility. This is the result of several decades of increasing policy focus on technology innovation, which underpin China's ambitions to become a producer of knowledge and foster innovation-driven socio-economic development. Looking forward, clean energy innovation will play a crucial role to achieve China's objectives of carbon peaking by 2030 and neutrality by 2060, and ranks among core government priorities for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). This report builds on the IEA Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China chapter on "Innovation for carbon neutrality", and provides complementary and new analysis and information. It maps the institutional and policy landscape of clean energy innovation in China and shows trends for selected metrics to track and explain progress of technology development.
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China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.
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Hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) are set to play important and complementary roles in meeting People's Republic of China's (hereafter, "China") pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Hydrogen could contribute to China's energy system decarbonisation strategy, such as through the use as a fuel and feedstock in industrial processes; in fuel cell electric transport, and for the production of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels for shipping and aviation. The analysis of scenarios in this report suggests that while hydrogen from renewable power electrolysis could meet the majority of hydrogen demand by 2060, equipping existing hydrogen production facilities with CCUS could be a complementary strategy to reduce emissions and scale-up low-emission hydrogen supply. This report was produced in collaboration with the Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21). It explores today's hydrogen and CCUS status in China, and the potential evolution of hydrogen demand in various sectors of the Chinese economy through 2060, in light of scenarios developed independently by the IEA and the China Hydrogen Alliance. The report also provides a comparative assessment of the economic performance and life cycle emissions of different hydrogen production routes. Finally, the report discusses potential synergies and regional opportunities in deploying CCUS and hydrogen, and identifies financing mechanisms and supporting policies required to enable the deployment of hydrogen production with CCUS in China.
Energy --- Science and Technology --- China, People's Republic
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Selected Issues.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- International agencies --- China, People's Republic of
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China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- International agencies --- China, People's Republic of
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Selected Issues.
China, People's Republic of --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- International agencies
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This paper employs a meta-regression analysis of 473 estimates from 15 studies to take stock of the empirical literature on Chinese aid effectiveness. After accommodating publication selection bias, we find that, on average, Beijing’s foreign assistance has had a positive impact on economic and social outcomes in recipient countries but an opposite effect on governance, albeit negligible in size. We also show that (i) studies that fail to uncover statistically significant effects are less likely to be submitted to journals, or accepted for publication; and (ii) results are not driven by authors’ institutional affiliation. Differences in study characteristics such as the type of development outcome considered, how the Chinese aid variable is measured, the geographic region under study, and publication outlet explain the heterogeneity among Chinese aid effectiveness estimates reported in the literature.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Infrastructure --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: Other --- Foreign Aid --- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Foreign aid --- Development assistance --- National accounts --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- International relief --- Saving and investment --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper employs a meta-regression analysis of 473 estimates from 15 studies to take stock of the empirical literature on Chinese aid effectiveness. After accommodating publication selection bias, we find that, on average, Beijing’s foreign assistance has had a positive impact on economic and social outcomes in recipient countries but an opposite effect on governance, albeit negligible in size. We also show that (i) studies that fail to uncover statistically significant effects are less likely to be submitted to journals, or accepted for publication; and (ii) results are not driven by authors’ institutional affiliation. Differences in study characteristics such as the type of development outcome considered, how the Chinese aid variable is measured, the geographic region under study, and publication outlet explain the heterogeneity among Chinese aid effectiveness estimates reported in the literature.
China, People's Republic of --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Infrastructure --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: Other --- Foreign Aid --- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Foreign aid --- Development assistance --- National accounts --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- International relief --- Saving and investment
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While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Diseases: Contagious --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Globalization: General --- Health: Government Policy --- Regulation --- Public Health --- Trade: General --- Health Behavior --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Imports --- International trade --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Export restrictions --- Trade in goods --- Exports --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Communicable diseases --- Balance of trade --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Taxation --- Production and Operations Management --- Exports and Imports --- Globalization --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Trade: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Globalization: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Total factor productivity --- Labor productivity --- Exports --- International trade --- Imports --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Tariff --- Industrial productivity --- China, People's Republic of
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