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2022 (4)

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Aggregate Lapsation Risk
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Year: 2022 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research

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Understanding the Ownership Structure of Corporate Bonds
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Year: 2022 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research

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Aggregate Lapsation Risk
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We study aggregate lapsation risk in the life insurance sector. We construct two lapsation risk factors that explain a large fraction of the common variation in lapse rates of the 30 largest life insurance companies. The first is a cyclical factor that is positively correlated with credit spreads and unemployment, while the second factor is a trend factor that correlates with the level of interest rates. Using a novel policy-level database from a large life insurer, we examine the heterogeneity in risk factor exposures based on policy and policyholder characteristics. Young policyholders with higher health risk in low-income areas are more likely to lapse their policies during economic downturns. We explore the implications for hedging and valuation of life insurance contracts. Ignoring aggregate lapsation risk results in mispricing of life insurance policies. The calibrated model points to overpricing on average. In the cross-section, young, low-income, and high-health risk households face higher effective mark-ups than the old, high-income, and healthy.

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Book
Understanding the Ownership Structure of Corporate Bonds
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

Insurers are the largest institutional investors of corporate bonds. However, a standard theory of insurance markets, in which insurers maximize firm value subject to regulatory or risk constraints, predicts no allocation to corporate bonds. We resolve this puzzle in an equilibrium asset pricing model with leverage-constrained households and institutional investors. Insurers have relatively cheap access to leverage through their underwriting activity. They hold a leveraged portfolio of low-beta assets in equilibrium, relaxing other investors' leverage constraints. The model explains recent empirical findings on insurers' portfolio choice and its impact on asset prices.

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