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Book
Returns to Different Postsecondary Investments
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Year: 2022 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research

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Returns to Different Postsecondary Investments : Institution Type, Academic Programs, and Credentials
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Early research on the returns to higher education treated the postsecondary system as a monolith. In reality, postsecondary education in the United States and around the world is highly differentiated, with a variety of options that differ by credential (associates degree, bachelor's degree, diploma, certificate, graduate degree), the control of the institution (public, private not-for-profit, private for-profit), the quality/resources of the institution, field of study, and exposure to remedial education. In this Chapter, we review the literature on the returns to these different types of higher education investments, which has received increasing attention in recent decades. We first provide an overview of the structure of higher education in the U.S. and around the world, followed by a model that helps clarify and articulate the assumptions employed by different estimators used in the literature. We then discuss the research on the return to institution type, focusing on the return to two-year, four-year, and for-profit institutions as well as the return to college quality within and across these institution types. We also present the research on the return to different educational programs, including vocational credentials, remedial education, field of study, and graduate school. The wide variation in the returns to different postsecondary investments that we document leads to the question of how students from different backgrounds sort into these different institutions and programs. We discuss the emerging research showing that lower-SES students, especially in the U.S., are more likely to sort into colleges and programs with lower returns as well as results from recent U.S.-based interventions and policies designed to support success among students from disadvantaged backgrounds. The Chapter concludes with some broad directions for future research.

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The Returns to College Major Choice : Average and Distributional Effects, Career Trajectories, and Earnings Variability
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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There is a growing body of research examining the labor market returns to college major, motivated by the large returns to skill in the labor market. Prior research has focused almost exclusively on mean effects and has paid little attention to the role of earnings growth and variability. Using linked administrative data from Texas on public K-12 students followed through college into the labor market, we find that the focus on mean differences mask four important features of the returns to college majors. First, majors are associated with varying earnings growth, which makes the returns sensitive to the experience distribution of the sample analyzed. Second, average earnings effects vary across workers; quantile treatment effect estimates show that mean effects mask considerable effect heterogeneity. Third, major choice affects earnings variability within workers over time. College major effects on earnings and variability are negatively correlated; high return majors also have more stable earnings. Finally, there is substantial variation in returns across specific majors within aggregate major groups and across institutions. This variation suggests that estimate of returns to college major are sensitive to how majors are aggregated and the composition of institutions in the sample.

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Misinformation, Consumer Risk Perceptions, and Markets : The Impact of an Information Shock on Vaping and Smoking Cessation
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S. Because e-cigarettes do not involve the combustion of tobacco, vaping offers the potential to prevent most of the health consequences of smoking. We study the impact of an information shock created by an outbreak of lung injuries apparently related to e-cigarettes. We use data from multiple sources: surveys of risk perceptions conducted before, during, and after the outbreak; an in-depth survey we conducted on risk perceptions and vaping and smoking behavior; and national aggregate time-series sales data. We find that after the outbreak, consumer perceptions of the riskiness of e-cigarettes sharply increased, so that in contrast to almost all experts, the majority of consumers perceive e-cigarettes to be relatively and absolutely riskier than cigarettes. From our estimated e-cigarette demand models, we conclude that the information shock reduced e-cigarette demand by about 30 percent. We also estimate that the information shock decreased the use of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation, again by about 30 percent. Over time, the reduced smoking cessation due to the information shock will in turn increase smoking-related illness and death.

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The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread : Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Since the spring of 2021, nearly 700 colleges and universities in the U.S. have mandated that their students become vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus. We leverage rich data on colleges' vaccination policies and semester start dates, along with a variety of county-level public health outcomes, to provide the first estimates of the effects of these mandates on the communities surrounding four-year, residential colleges. In event study specifications, we find that, over the first 13 weeks of the fall 2021 semester, college vaccine mandates reduced new COVID-19 cases by 339 per 100,000 county residents and new deaths by 5.4 per 100,000 residents, with an estimated value of lives saved between $9.7 million and $27.4 million per 100,000 residents. These figures suggest that the mandates reduced total US COVID-19 deaths in autumn 2021 by approximately 5%.

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