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This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Production and Operations Management --- Exports and Imports --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Externalities --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Labor productivity --- Production --- Productivity --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Exports --- International trade --- Trade balance --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Industrial productivity --- International finance --- Balance of trade --- China, People's Republic of

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This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.

Tourism --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 --- -Economic aspects. --- Economic aspects. --- -Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic growth --- Economic sectors --- Economics of Gender --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Gambling --- Globalization: General --- Health Behavior --- Health economics --- Health --- Health: General --- Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries --- Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- International Economics --- International economics --- International institutions --- International tourism --- International trade --- Job creation --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Political economy --- Recreation --- Restaurants --- Sports --- Trade: General --- New Zealand