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This background note analyzes the economic geography of the Horn of Africa using the framework of the 2009 Word Development Report. For the purpose of this report, the Horn of Africa (henceforth HoA) comprises of five countries: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. This note first seeks to provide a descriptive snapshot of recent socio-economic trends in the HoA countries vis-a-vis the regional trends in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) as a whole. Second, it sheds light on the economic geography of the HoA region with a particular focus on 3D (density, distance, and division). Inparticular, this note highlights that borderlands of the HoA countries suffer from a combination of low density and high distance that hinders theborderlands from tapping their full economic potential. It finally concludes with a set of policy recommendations for removing barriers to sustainable growth in the region.
Economic Geography --- Living Standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
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The Lake Chad region, which is an economically-and socially integrated area spanning across four countries of Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria in north-west Africa, has been trapped in a vicious circle of suboptimal territorial development and fragility. This note shows that the Lake Chad region lags in multiple dimensions of development ranging from poverty, human capital, and access to services. A poverty rate in the Lake Chad region is found to be much higher than other parts of the countries surrounding the lake. The regional poverty rate in the Extreme North region of Cameroon (59 percent) is three times higher that of the rest of the country (19 percent). In Nigeria, the Lake Chad region203 has a poverty rate (72 percent) nearly twice as high as in the rest of the country (38 percent). Chad is the only exception, where the poverty rate in the country's Lake Chad region (31 percent) is lower than the rest of the country (40 percent).204 This is explained by the fact that the Chad region around the lake lies near the capital of the country, with a consequently higher urbanization rate and a relatively high population density. The note is organized as follows. Section 2.2 provides key statistics on poverty, sector of work, and human capital indicators in the Lake Chad region vis-a-vis other parts of the country and examine how the Lake Chad lags behind in different dimensions. Section 2.3 provides a diagnostic of economic geography with a focus on three dimensions of density, distance and division. Section 2.4 identifies a set of structural factors, aggregate shocks and selected policies that might be associated with the dynamics of economic activity and social inclusion across the region.
Access of Poor To Social Services --- Conflict and Development --- Economic Growth --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Development --- Social Inclusion --- Social Inclusion and Institutions
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Developing countries are implementing policies expanding the adoption and productive use of digital technologies to advance economic development and inclusion. Yet, systematic analyses of the welfare and distributional effects of digital technologies on households and individuals-especially broadband mobile internet-remain limited. To fill this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a simple analytical framework to offer insights on how more equitable access to digital technologies affects household welfare, which can be organized into four areas: (1) determinants of adoption of digital technologies; (2) distributional effects of increasing competition in the information and communication technology industry; (3) welfare and poverty effects of coverage and access to digital technologies; and (4) local economic effects of access to digital technologies. To illustrate the relevance and replicability of this framework across developing countries, the analysis is carried out for Senegal, a country that has recently experienced a rapid expansion in digital infrastructure.
Access to Technology --- Digital Divide --- Digital Economy --- Digital Technology --- Household Welfare --- Inclusive Growth --- Inequality --- Information and Communication Technologies --- Information And Communication Technology --- Information Technology --- Internet Adoption --- Mobile Broadband --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Technology Adoption
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Mobile broadband internet is the main technology through which individuals access the internet in developing countries. Understanding the barriers to broadband adoption is thus a priority in designing policies aiming to expand access and close the digital divide across socioeconomic groups and territories. This paper exploits data from harmonized household expenditure surveys in seven countries in West Africa in 2018/19-a subregion with one of the lowest levels of mobile internet penetration in the world-to identify the main factors that limit mobile broadband internet adoption. Results show that low levels of household consumption and prices of services are two key constraints. One standard deviation increase in household expenditure, about USD 65 per capita per month, is associated with a 6.5 percentage point rise in the probability of adoption, while one standard deviation drop in the price of mobile internet services, about USD 3.60, increases the probability of adoption by 2.4 percentage points. Other determinants include demographic characteristics (sex, age, language, urban location), socioeconomic features (educational attainment, sector of employment), and other factors linked to policy (access to electricity, ownership of assets, alternative means of internet access). Results are robust to specifications focusing only in areas with mobile internet coverage (3G).
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Violent conflicts present a formidable threat to regional economies. Throughout the world, border regions in many countries are possibly impacted by the cross-border economic effects of regional insurgencies in neighboring countries or national state failures, id est "bad neighbors". This raises two questions. First, what is the magnitude of the spill-over economic effects of foreign conflict and what are the channels through which they operate Second, what policies can governments adopt in the potentially exposed regions to mitigate such spill-over effects. In this paper, we adopt a difference-in-difference (DiD) framework leveraging the unexpected rise of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009 to study its economic effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities. We find strong cross-border economic effects that are likely driven by reduced trade activities, not the diffusion of conflict. Factors of local economic resilience to this foreign conflict shock then include trade diversification and political and economic securitization. More generally, conflicts, if they have regional economic effects, may necessitate regional responses.
Armed Conflict --- Conflict --- Conflict and Development --- Inequality --- Labor Markets --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migration --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade
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There is a vast economic literature studying the effects of climate change on long-run growth, migration, urbanization, and human capital, among several other outcomes. The paper is structured as follows: Section 3.2 dives into some of the physical characteristics of Lake Chad and its water sources. Section 3.3 introduces our novel data. Section 3.4 presents the hypothesis and empirical strategy behind our analysis. Sections 3.5, 3.6 and 3.7 present results on total population, cities and roads, respectively. Finally, section 3.8 concludes.
Climate Change Impacts --- Drought Management --- Environment --- Hydrology --- Natural Disasters --- Natural Resources Management --- Poverty Reduction --- Urbanization --- Water Resources
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The objective of this Regional Economic Memorandum (REM) is to strengthen the economic analysis available to policymakers on the challenges and opportunities for regional economic integration to support job creation and economic transformation in the Horn of Africa. It assesses the current state of regional economic integration, how policies and investments can deepen this integration, and how this could help to address the opportunities and challenges confronting the region. The analysis applies both an economic geography perspective (based on the 3Ds framework of the 2009 WDR - density, distance, and division) and the lens of the jobs and economic transformation (JET) agenda, whilst taking into account fragility and conflict and the region's complex and evolving political economy. This overview synthesizes the key findings of the analysis conducted for the HoA REM, full details of which are presented in a series of Background Papers. The overview briefly describes key aspects of the region's economy and development progress (Section 2). Next, in Section 3, it presents features of the economic geography of the region and some key results from economic modeling and transport connectivity analysis. The findings demonstrate the salience of the JET agenda in the Horn, and this and its implications are discussed in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 concludes by highlighting the main policy messages which emerge from the REM's regional-level analysis.
Access and Equity in Basic Education --- Access To Markets --- Agriculture --- Education --- Human Capital --- Infrastructure --- Job Creation --- Labor Markets --- Livestock and Animal Husbandry --- Living Standards --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade Facilitation --- Urbanization
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What are the impacts of expanding mobile broadband coverage on poverty, household consumption and labor market outcomes in developing countries? Who benefits from improved coverage of mobile internet? To respond to these questions, this paper applies a difference-in-differences estimation using panel household survey data combined with geospatial information on the rollout of mobile broadband coverage in Tanzania. The results reveal that being covered by 3G networks has a large positive effect on total household consumption and poverty reduction, driven by positive impacts on labor market outcomes. Working age individuals living in areas covered by mobile internet witnessed an increase in labor force participation, wage employment, and non-farm self-employment, and a decline in farm employment. These effects vary by age, gender and skill level. Younger and more skilled men benefit the most through higher labor force participation and wage employment, while high-skilled women benefit from transitions from self-employed farm work into non-farm employment.
Broadband --- Consumption --- Employment and Unemployment --- Inequality --- Information and Communication Technologies --- Information Technology --- Internet Access --- Labor Force Participation --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Wages, Compensation and Benefits --- Welfare
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This paper examines living conditions-mainly access to infrastructure and basic services-in Kinshasa, by focusing on how they vary within the city and how they are related to household characteristics. First, drawing on a household survey conducted in the capital province in 2018, the paper shows that many Kinshasa residents live with substandard housing and inadequate levels of access to infrastructure and basic services. Second, the level and quality of access to basic services are highly correlated with residents' consumption and education levels, as well as their neighborhood characteristics. Third, despite the presence of negative externalities from the high population density, poor households benefit from living in dense neighborhoods by gaining a minimum level of access. The paper argues that it is imperative to increase the supply of affordable housing to lessen the inequality of access to services in Kinshasa.
Communities and Human Settlements --- Housing --- Inequality --- Informal Settlements --- Multidimensional Poverty --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Reduction --- Spatial Inequality --- Urban Development --- Urban Housing --- Urban Housing and Land Settlements --- Urban Poverty
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This report sheds light on the interlocked long-term territorial development challenges and the recently realized systemic risks affecting the Lake Chad region. It summarizes the findings of seven technical papers, each investigating different aspects of the interlinked challenges faced by the region. These studies are accompanied by complementary research on labor market and geospatial socioeconomic trends, as well as by a review of the thin literature on economic development across the region. In addition to presenting the main results of the technical papers, the report positions the findings in the broader context of an analytical framework depicting the feedback mechanisms between the region's territorial development gaps and the self-reinforcing link to shocks, namely, violent conflict and climate change. This analytical framework is presented in Section 1.2. The rest of the report is structured as follows. Section 1.3 describes the main social and economic trajectories in the region. It reviews long-term demographic trends, suggesting. Section 1.4 argues that the low-growth, high-poverty equilibrium observed in the region is closely linked to the region's economic geography. Section 1.5 discusses how the impact of climatic variation and violent conflict experienced in the region interlink with and exacerbate the territorial development challenges. Section 1.6 presents policy directions structured around four crosscutting themes: infrastructure, trade, governance, and natural resource management. The crosscutting nature of these themes encourages the exploration of potential synergies across challenge areas. The discussion in the section aims to inform policy-making efforts to strengthen territorial development and mitigate the impacts of conflict and climate change. Such endeavors can increase the likelihood of breaking free from the self-reinforcing negative mechanisms and boost the potential return of the region to a path of stability and inclusive economic development.
Access To Markets --- Agriculture --- Climate Change --- Climate Change Impacts --- Conflict and Development --- Economic Development --- Environment --- Human Capital --- Labor Market --- Natural Resources Management --- Poverty Reduction --- Trade Barriers --- Trade Facilitation --- Urbanization
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