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KU Leuven (2)


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English (2)


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2021 (2)

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Book
The Impact of a Private Supplement to Public Health Care : The Mexico Diabetes Experiment
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

There are ongoing debates around the world over the value of private supplements to public health insurance systems. We investigate this issue in the context of one of the world's deadliest diseases, diabetes, and one of the countries with the worst diabetes problems in the world, Mexico. We implement a novel deniers randomization approach to cost-effectively provide a causal estimate of enrollment in private supplement to the free public health system. Our final sample of more than 1000 diabetics randomized into a large price subsidy for enrollment in the private plan is well balanced. We estimate enormous impacts of the private supplement, with HbA1c blood sugar levels falling by a full point (relative to a control mean of 8.5%), and to increase the share of those treated who are under control by 69%. We show that this effect arises through both improved treatment compliance and health behaviors, and that diabetes complications fall even in the short run. The net costs of this intervention are at most one-third of the gross costs due to offsetting public sector savings, and the health benefits are many multiples of gross costs. But the returns to private care do not appear to reflect more productive delivery of care per visit, which is comparable in a separate quasi-experimental analysis of public insurance; rather, effects arise through more attachment to medical care in the private alternative.

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Book
Estimating the Financial Impact of Gene Therapy in the U.S.
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We empirically assess the potential financial impact of future gene therapies on the US economy. After identifying 109 late-stage gene therapy clinical trials currently underway, we estimate the number of new and existing patients with corresponding diseases to be treated by these gene therapies, developing and applying novel mathematical models to estimate the increase in quality-adjusted life years for each approved gene therapy. We then simulate the launch prices and the expected spending for these therapies over a 15-year time horizon. Under conservative assumptions, the results of our simulation suggest that an expected total of 1.09 million patients will be treated by gene therapy from January 2020 to December 2034. The expected peak annual spending on these therapies is $25.3 billion, and the expected total spending from January 2020 to December 2034 is $306 billion. Assuming a linear pace of future gene therapy development fitted to past experience, our spending estimate increases by only 15.7% under conservative assumptions. As a proxy for the impact of expected spending on different public and private payers, we decompose the estimated annual spending by treated age group. Since experience suggests that insurers with annual budget constraints may restrict access to therapies with expected benefit to the patient, we consider various methods of payment to ensure access to these therapies even among those insured by the most budget-constrained payers.

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