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2021 (3)

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Book
Common Agent or Double Agent? Pharmacy Benefit Managers in the Prescription Drug Market
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Year: 2021 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research

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Common Agent or Double Agent? Pharmacy Benefit Managers in the Prescription Drug Market
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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A small number of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) dominate the market for branded pharmaceuticals in the United States, but they are controversial, and their economic significance is poorly understood. Large PBMs are market intermediaries. They are also a common agent operating formularies on behalf of various third-party payers. We present a model that captures these dual roles and also clarifies the economics of drug rebates. We find that PBM-run formularies enhance the efficiency of drug markets, but when PBMs are highly concentrated these gains accrue to PBMs rather than consumers or drug makers. We also identify threats to formulary efficiency including most favored nation agreements between drug makers and PBMs and the strategic setting of high list prices by drug makers. Our model also offers insights into current market structures and a framework for assessing market reforms.

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Book
Estimating the Financial Impact of Gene Therapy in the U.S.
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We empirically assess the potential financial impact of future gene therapies on the US economy. After identifying 109 late-stage gene therapy clinical trials currently underway, we estimate the number of new and existing patients with corresponding diseases to be treated by these gene therapies, developing and applying novel mathematical models to estimate the increase in quality-adjusted life years for each approved gene therapy. We then simulate the launch prices and the expected spending for these therapies over a 15-year time horizon. Under conservative assumptions, the results of our simulation suggest that an expected total of 1.09 million patients will be treated by gene therapy from January 2020 to December 2034. The expected peak annual spending on these therapies is $25.3 billion, and the expected total spending from January 2020 to December 2034 is $306 billion. Assuming a linear pace of future gene therapy development fitted to past experience, our spending estimate increases by only 15.7% under conservative assumptions. As a proxy for the impact of expected spending on different public and private payers, we decompose the estimated annual spending by treated age group. Since experience suggests that insurers with annual budget constraints may restrict access to therapies with expected benefit to the patient, we consider various methods of payment to ensure access to these therapies even among those insured by the most budget-constrained payers.

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