Narrow your search

Library

KU Leuven (1)


Resource type

dissertation (1)


Language

English (1)


Year
From To Submit

2021 (1)

Listing 1 - 1 of 1
Sort by

Dissertation
Identifying the next wave of plant refugees in Flanders as a result of climate change

Loading...
Export citation

Choose an application

Bookmark

Abstract

Climate change is a highly discussed topic and, in the scientific field, widely acknowledged to be true. These changes in the climate are accelerated due to actions of anthropogenic origin. Human-caused emissions, like CO2, increased tremendously over the last decades and will continue to do so in the future if nothing is done about it. The atmosphere and oceans are warming, ice is melting, sea levels are rising. Since we cannot precisely predict the future, we have used models that try to approximate the future climate under different possible scenarios. Two scenarios were taken into account in this research: a scenario where we suppress the emissions the best we can, and a scenario where we do nothing and the emissions keep on increasing like they used to. One of the elements affected most by climate change is biodiversity. Biodiversity is threatened by humans in many different ways, but climate change is definitely one of the most important threats that species - and the ecosystems they live in - have to face. In some cases, species can no longer survive where they are living now so they must move to other regions, adapt themselves, or otherwise they will go extinct. Since climate zones are moving to the poles, the regions where the species can survive are moving along with them. However, often species can not follow these moving zones which increases their risk of extinction. This research set out to study the effect of climate change on plant species that are currently found south of Flanders to determine if they will be able to survive there under future climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century. In this research 171 southern plant species were examined. Predictions were made by using specialized models that can create maps showing where plant species could live under the two future climate scenarios. Variables that describe the climate and the soil were combined with the species’ current occurrence data. These were then used to make projections of the occurrences of species under future climate scenarios. Changes in the amount of area where a specific species could exist were calculated for Flanders and Europe. Also, the distance and direction of the shift of these areas where the species will be able to survive was determined. These values can be of use for conservation managers in prioritizing their conservation efforts. For example, they can assist plant species to migrate to other regions when their current habitat is not suitable anymore. By doing so, ecosystems can be made more resilient to climate change.

Keywords

Listing 1 - 1 of 1
Sort by