Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Inflation forecasting is a continuous issue, not only in central bank business, but also in economics in general, combining the two major pillars in economic science, theory and empirics. The Great Recession or more precisely the behaviour of inflation following the severe contraction of output and the subsequent recovery process challenged the contemptuous forecasting models. Those models often rely on one of the most famous macroeconomic concepts, the Phillips curve. Within this framework, inflation is linked to a measure of economic activity, e.g. the widely used output gap concept, which is defined as the deviation of actual from the inflation-stable or potential output. Relying on this framework, inflation dropped during the crisis too less and increased afterwards too weak. Consequently, the question about the usefulness of output gaps as an instrument for inflation prediction raises and additionally the question if new measures retrieved from New Keynesian models can improve forecasts in a simple forecast framework. Current research indicates that for example nonlinear modifications of New Keynesian models could be sufficient to solve or model the puzzling behaviour of inflation in the last decade. Similar results are also indicated in non-DSGE Phillips curve forecasts. The New Keynesian models have the additional advantage that specific economic aspects like financial frictions can be incorporate, which could be particular important during the Great Recession. Therefore, this analysis not only replicated traditional measures (statistical and reduced-form methods) of the output gap, but also two DSGE measures, with and without financial frictions. Considering the last three decades, the mentioned replicates of the US output gap measures differ in several aspects: The DSGE measures are more volatile than the traditional measures, account within this sample for the largest outliers, but allow in contrast to the traditional measures for a deeper interpretation of fundamental drivers of past output gaps. The uncertainty about the level of output gaps, and sometimes even about the sign, is high, as previous literature already indicated. Using output gaps as a precise instrument is therefore at best questionable. Another observation that suggest a limitation of such measures for the purpose of inflation forecasts, is their time-inconsistency. Both, traditional and New Keynesian methods produce different estimates for final and real-time approaches. Whereas literature of the years before the Great Recession at least found a good in-sample fit and a worse out-of-sample fit of Phillips curve-styled models, this analysis results a poor in- and out-of-sample fit and supports therefore the suggested breakdown of the Phillips curve relationship. This indicates a poor predictive power of these output gap estimates on inflation nowadays. The intended usefulness of financial frictions in New Keynesian measures of output gap cannot be observed, since the extended DSGE measure produces qualitatively similarly estimates to the baseline model, i.e. in terms of correlation, standard deviation, and the behaviour within the forecast framework. Reformulations of the forecast equation in a nonlinear or New Keynesian (including of expectations) way don’t result in a restoring of the Phillips curve. Because of that, the suggested possible solution to the missing deflation and inflation puzzle in a DSGE framework does not apply in this analysis, which uses New Keynesian models solely to estimate the output gap and not for forecasting purposes. However, using the change of the output gap instead of the levels results in statistically significant coefficients for the traditional measures using the consumer price inflation and for all measures using an inflation measure derived from the GDP implicit price deflator. Although, these models are not able to beat the naïve benchmark without an output gap measure. The implications from these findings are unclear since they are at odds with the traditional understanding of the output gap, saying that inflationary or deflationary pressure is induced when actual output is above or below its potential counterpart. Plausible would be that the dynamics of output gap induce additional pressure, but not instead of the level. Therefore, additional research is necessary to investigate the implications of this finding and to state if these results apply in general or represent a model or sample specific feature.  

Output Gap --- Phillips curve --- DSGE models --- Inflation Forecasts --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Macroéconomie & économie monétaire

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit human capital directly in Europe and Central Asia, adversely affecting both education and health. School closures may lead to learning losses equivalent to a third to a full year of schooling, and they are likely to exacerbate inequalities, by disproportionately affecting students from disadvantaged backgrounds. The disease has already killed thousands of people, and some patients who survive will suffer long-term damage to their health. Recovery from the pandemic will thus require strong investment in education and health. This update examines human capital outcomes in the region and the ways in which the pandemic is likely to affect them. A focus on the quality of tertiary education and health risk factors of obesity, smoking, and heavy drinking highlights the challenges that are particularly important for the region. Post-COVID 19 policy initiatives to improve education and health will need to recognize the challenges posed by increased reliance on remote learning and the importance of being prepared for future pandemics, given the vulnerability of the region's aging societies and the large number of people with underlying health risks.

Brain Drain --- Economic Forecasts --- Global Value Chains --- Labor Mobility --- Migration --- Shift To High-Skill Intensive Report --- Tradable Services --- Trade --- Transition

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

"An argument to view memory as predicting the future, rather than merely archiving the past. Based on experimental evidence from psychology and neuroscience"--

Memory --- Forecasting --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction --- Retention (Psychology) --- Intellect --- Psychology --- Thought and thinking --- Comprehension --- Executive functions (Neuropsychology) --- Mnemonics --- Perseveration (Psychology) --- Reproduction (Psychology) --- Forecasting. --- Memory. --- Mémoire --- Prévision --- COGNITIVE SCIENCES/Psychology/Cognitive Psychology --- NEUROSCIENCE/General --- Mémoire --- Prévision

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

"This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters- the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR"--

Policy sciences. --- Forecasting. --- Human security --- POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security --- POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General --- POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Affairs & Administration --- Non-traditional security (Human security) --- NTS (Human security) --- Security, Human --- Human rights --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction --- Policy-making --- Policymaking --- Public policy management --- bio-weapons --- climate change --- epistemology --- forecasting --- governance --- health care --- healthcare --- nuclear weapons --- policy-making --- prevision

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The tech sectors are the least understood portion of the healthcare system, but the ones that supply most of the innovation in healthcare services and generate most revenue. Fully updated for this third edition, The Business of Healthcare Innovation is a wide-ranging analysis of business models and trends in the tech sectors of the healthcare industry. It provides a thorough overview of and introduction to the innovative sectors that fuel improvements in healthcare: pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, life science startups, medical devices and information technology. For each sector, the book examines the trends in scientific innovation, the science behind that innovation, the business and revenue models pursued to commercialize that innovation, the regulatory constraints within which each sector must operate and the growing issues posed by activist payers and consumers. From a combination of academic and industry perspectives, the authors show why healthcare sectors are such an important source of growth in any nation's economy.

Medical care --- Medical technology --- Business forecasting. --- Economic forecasting. --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Business --- Business forecasts --- Forecasting, Business --- Economic forecasting --- Health care technology --- Health technology --- Technology --- Delivery of health care --- Delivery of medical care --- Health care --- Health care delivery --- Health services --- Healthcare --- Medical and health care industry --- Medical services --- Personal health services --- Public health --- Technological innovations. --- Economic aspects.