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2020 (19)

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Book
Norway : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector Oversight
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The Norwegian insurance sector is well-capitalized. In recent years, the authorities have taken steps to recapitalize weak insurers and to boost capital for the overall industry. Risk-resilience has been strengthened by stronger retention of profits leading to accumulation of reserves, better risk management, and higher capital in the run-up to the implementation of the Solvency II regulatory regime.


Book
Further Extension of Consultation Cycles Due To Covid-19 Pandemic, and Suspension of Framework To Address Excessive Delays in Article IV Consultations and Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1513550403 151355042X Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Notwithstanding the ongoing intensive policy dialogue with the membership during the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing need for resuming Article IV consultations and mandatory Financial Stability Assessments (FSAs). However, the resumption of Article IV consultations over the coming months will need to be gradual, remain focused on the crisis and related challenges, and be undertaken flexibly. Staff recommends a further extension of consultation cycles to accommodate the gradual nature of the restart. Staff also recommends that the application of the framework to address excessive delays in the completion of Article IV consultations and mandatory FSAs be temporarily suspended.


Book
Madagascar Economic Update, December 2020 : Setting a Course for Recovery.
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Prior to the pandemic, Madagascar was on sustained recovery path and achieved progress in poverty reduction. The economic revival in the period leading up to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis was supported by political and economic stability, renewed investor confidence, rising integration in key export markets, growing flows of concessional financing and structural reforms. Activity continued to gain strength up until 2019, as public and private sector investments accelerated, while moderate inflation helped support real income and consumer spending. At the same time, budget and current account deficits remained moderate and the currency stabilized in real effective terms. In this context, growth reached 4.4 percent in 2019, its fastest pace in over a decade, with export-oriented sectors such as textiles, mining, and tourism performing particularly well in the run-up to the crisis. Tourism revenues were bolstered by a 19 percent increase in visitor arrivals, reaching a decade high of 375.000. In the primary sector, favorable weather conditions have contributed to a bumper rice harvest and significant gains in agricultural production more generally. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sudden and deep recession, reversing nearly a decade of prior income per capita gains. The combined impact of global trade disruptions and domestic containment measures is estimated to have resulted in a GDP contraction of -4.2 percent in 2020, similar to that observed during the devastating 2009 constitutional crisis. Considering a pre-crisis projection of 5.2 percent in 2020, this means that income per capita would be 9.4 percent lower than expected at the start of the year, erasing all gains achieved since the return to constitutional order in 2013. On the demand side, a sharp drop in exports was the key driver of the decline in activity, while public consumption and investment played a buffeting role. The COVID-19 crisis was an external shock of unprecedented magnitude. The contraction in global activity in 2020, currently estimated at -4.4 percent, would be by far the most severe and broad-based on records, with output shrinking in more than 90 percent of countries around the world, against 83 percent during the great depression in 1930, and 60 percent during the great recession 2009. In the Euro Area-Madagascar's largest export destination-output is estimated to contract by 7.4 percent. As the global toll of the pandemic continues to increase, millions of people are suffering from diminished prospects and disrupted livelihoods. In the developing world, falling income per capita in the vast majority of countries will interrupt poverty reduction trends and could tip over more than 100 million people into extreme poverty.


Book
Extension of Consultation Cycles Due to COVID-19 Pandemic.
Author:
ISBN: 1513542834 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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To better respond to the unprecedented demand from the membership for financing and crisis support in response to the covid-19 pandemic, there is a temporary postponement of staff’s work on Article IV consultations and mandatory Financial Stability Assessments. To ensure the postponement has no adverse impact of members’ compliance with their obligations, the deadlines for upcoming Article IV consultations and for discussions with currency unions have been extended by 6 months. This paper provides additional background on these temporary arrangements.


Book
Norway : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector Oversight.
Author:
ISBN: 1513553631 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The Norwegian insurance sector is well-capitalized. In recent years, the authorities have taken steps to recapitalize weak insurers and to boost capital for the overall industry. Risk-resilience has been strengthened by stronger retention of profits leading to accumulation of reserves, better risk management, and higher capital in the run-up to the implementation of the Solvency II regulatory regime.


Book
Taking Stock of the Financial Sector Policy Response to COVID-19 around the World
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper introduces a new global database and a policy classification framework that records the financial sector policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic across 154 jurisdictions. It documents that authorities around the world have taken a diverse array of measures to mitigate financial distress in markets and for borrowers, and to support the provision of critical financial services to the real economy. Measures that focus on the banking sector constitute the majority of policies taken and aim to take advantage of the flexibility embedded in the international standards. However, emerging markets and developing economies tend to rely more on prudential measures that go beyond this embedded flexibility compared with advanced economies, which may reduce bank balance sheet transparency and increase risks. Using Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regressions, the paper takes initial steps to analyze the determinants of policy makers' responsiveness and activity in emerging markets and developing economies, respectively. The results indicate that policy makers have typically been significantly more responsive and have taken more policy measures in emerging markets and developing economies that are richer and more populous. Countries with higher private debt levels tend to respond earlier with banking sector and liquidity and funding measures. The spread of COVID-19, macro-financial fundamentals, and fiscal and containment policies appear to play a limited role. In a substantially smaller sample, the paper explores the role of banking characteristics and finds that emerging markets and developing economies with higher private credit levels and that have adopted Basel III features have taken fewer policy measures. Future work is necessary for better understanding the country determinants of the policy response as well as the effectiveness and potential unintended consequences of the measures.


Book
Protecting People and Economies : Integrated Policy Responses to COVID-19.
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed a global health emergency and an unprecedented economic crisis of historic magnitude. Governments facing this threat are in uncharted territory, but three policy priorities addressed in this note are clear. Disease containment is a first-order concern to combat the pandemic, and measures such as testing and tracing, coupled with isolating and treating the infected can bring first-order gains. The economic crisis requires a parallel and simultaneous effort to save jobs, protect income, and ensure access to services for vulnerable populations. As governments act to slow the pandemic and protect lives and livelihoods now, they will need to maintain macro stability, continue to build trust, and communicate clearly to avoid deeper downturns and social unrest. Looking forward, this crisis can be an opportunity to rethink policy to build back with stronger systems for people and economies.


Book
Bank Capital and Risk in Europe and Central Asia Ten Years after the Crisis
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper examines changes in bank capital and capital regulations since the global financial crisis, in the Europe and Central Asia region. It shows that banks in Europe and Central Asia are better capitalized, as measured by regulatory capital ratios, than they were prior to the crisis. However, the increase in simple equity ratios for the same banks has been smaller over the past 10 years. The increases in regulatory capital ratios have coincided with a reduction in the stringency of the definition of Tier 1 capital and reduction in risk-weights. Further analyses show that bank risk in Europe and Central Asia is more sensitive to changes in simple leverage ratios than in regulatory capital ratios, consistent with the notion that equity ratios only include high-quality capital and do not rely on internal risk models to compute risk-weights. Although there has been some effort to increase capital and liquidity requirements for institutions deemed systemically important, the region has been lagging in addressing the resolution of these institutions.


Book
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2020 : Bridge to Recovery.
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Near-term global financial stability risks have been contained as an unprecedented policy response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has helped avert a financial meltdown and maintain the flow of credit to the economy. For the first time, many emerging market central banks have launched asset purchase programs to support the smooth functioning of financial markets and the overall economy. But the outlook remains highly uncertain, and vulnerabilities are rising, representing potential headwinds to recovery. The report presents an assessment of the real-financial disconnect, as well as forward-looking analysis of nonfinancial firms, banks, and emerging market capital flows. After the outbreak, firms’ cash flows were adversely affected as economic activity declined sharply. More vulnerable firms—those with weaker solvency and liquidity positions and smaller size—experienced greater financial stress than their peers in the early stages of the crisis. As the crisis unfolds, corporate liquidity pressures may morph into insolvencies, especially if the recovery is delayed. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable than large firms with access to capital markets. Although the global banking system is well capitalized, some banking systems may experience capital shortfalls in an adverse scenario, even with the currently deployed policy measures. The report also assesses the pandemic’s impact on firms’ environmental performance to gauge the extent to which the crisis may result in a reversal of the gains posted in recent years.


Book
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2020 : Bridge to Recovery.
Author:
ISBN: 151355851X Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Near-term global financial stability risks have been contained as an unprecedented policy response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has helped avert a financial meltdown and maintain the flow of credit to the economy. For the first time, many emerging market central banks have launched asset purchase programs to support the smooth functioning of financial markets and the overall economy. But the outlook remains highly uncertain, and vulnerabilities are rising, representing potential headwinds to recovery. The report presents an assessment of the real-financial disconnect, as well as forward-looking analysis of nonfinancial firms, banks, and emerging market capital flows. After the outbreak, firms’ cash flows were adversely affected as economic activity declined sharply. More vulnerable firms—those with weaker solvency and liquidity positions and smaller size—experienced greater financial stress than their peers in the early stages of the crisis. As the crisis unfolds, corporate liquidity pressures may morph into insolvencies, especially if the recovery is delayed. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable than large firms with access to capital markets. Although the global banking system is well capitalized, some banking systems may experience capital shortfalls in an adverse scenario, even with the currently deployed policy measures. The report also assesses the pandemic’s impact on firms’ environmental performance to gauge the extent to which the crisis may result in a reversal of the gains posted in recent years.

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