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This paper examines the growth-inflation nexus in Franc zone currency unions. It aims at estimating the inflation threshold above which additional inflationary pressures adversely affect economic expansion. It uses cointegration methods that are applied to data from 14 African countries from the Franc zone over 1970-2018. Based on country-level data, the results indicate that it is possible to increase the threshold levels used by regional central banks to 5.4-5.6 percent in the Central African Monetary Union and 4.3-4.5 percent in the West African Monetary Union. Homogeneous cointegration panel data analyses confirm the need to increase the threshold in Central African Monetary Union countries but do not in the West African Monetary Union countries.
Cointegration --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency Union --- Economic Growth --- Fixed Exchange Rate --- Inflation --- Monetary Union --- Trade and Regional Integration
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This paper examines systematically the growth effects of trade integration in Sub-Saharan Africa. It complements and improves upon the empirical literature in two aspects: first, it jointly estimates the impact of different dimensions of trade integration, namely, trade volumes, export/trade patterns by product (primary and manufacturing goods), and by destination (inter- and intra-regional). Second, it estimates the impact of trade integration on economic growth and its sources, that is, capital accumulation and total factor productivity growth. The analysis finds causal evidence that trade integration fosters growth. Additionally, manufacturing trade boosts growth and trade in primary goods hampers growth. Doubling the manufacturing trade share in Sub-Saharan Africa's gross domestic product would increase growth by 1.9 percentage points per year, while increases in primary trade reduce growth by 1 percentage point. This impact is mainly transmitted through lower capital accumulation. Finally, inter- and intra-regional trade have a positive impact on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Doubling inter-regional trade will increase growth by 1.9 percentage points, and the same increase for intra-regional trade enhances growth by 0.6 percentage points. The effects of inter-regional trade are transmitted primarily through capital accumulation, while those of intra-regional trade are channeled through enhanced total factor productivity growth.
Economic Growth --- Export Competitiveness --- Export Diversification --- Export Patterns --- International Economics and Trade --- Manufacturing Trade --- Regional Trade --- Total Factor Productivity --- Trade and Regional Integration --- Trade Integration --- Trade Policy
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The study aims to provide insights to policy makers in measuring the impact of trade liberalization and regional integration measures on gender employment and wages. The study incorporates gender-differentiated employment and wages for selected South Asian economies across sectors to identify targeted value chains and economic activities, particularly among green trade sectors. This is the first major attempt to develop a gender-differentiated data set for South Asian countries, within the widely used Global Trade Analysis Project framework, to examine the nexus between trade, green economy, and gender. Two illustrative scenarios are examined. The first scenario examines a complete tariff elimination among the Bhutan-Bangladesh-India-Nepal grouping of countries in all sectors. The second scenario involves complete tariff elimination among countries in South Asia. The results indicate that a free trade agreement signed by all countries is likely to be more beneficial compared with only some countries signing the free trade agreement. Women's employment grows faster than men's employment, as most of the sectors that benefit due to these free trade agreements are women intensive. Growth in women's employment and wages in South Asia is consistent with growth in green sectors.
CGE Model --- Employment --- Female Labor Force Participation --- Gender --- Gender and Economic Policy --- Gender and Poverty --- Gender Wage Gap --- Green Growth --- International Economics and Trade --- Regional Integration --- Regional Trade Agreements --- Trade and Gender --- Trade and Regional Integration --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy
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This study analyzes impacts on the power sector in the Middle East and North Africa region of three policies: removal of fuel subsidies, cross-border electricity trade, and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in line with commitments under the Paris Agreement. The analysis uses a power system planning model that minimizes the total electricity supply cost over 2018-35 by satisfying specified technical, economic, environmental, and policy constraints. The study shows that the region would save between USD 26.3 billion and USD 27.5 billion, measured in 2018 prices, by removing subsidies of natural gas used for power generation. It would save USD 83.6 billion to USD 90.9 billion through cross-border electricity trade. The two policies together would yield a reduction of 10 percent in cumulative power sector carbon dioxide emissions in the region, with a net cost savings of USD 111 billion. If a carbon constraining policy is considered to achieve the same level of reduction of emissions, the cost of the power system would increase by USD 97 billion. The study also reveals that the benefits of subsidy removal would be higher in the presence of cross-border trade, and the benefits of cross-border trade would be higher in the absence of fuel subsidies.
Electric Power --- Electricity Planning --- Energy --- Energy Policies and Economics --- Energy Trade --- Fuel Subsidy --- Greenhouse Gas Emissions --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Power System --- Regional Electricity Trade --- Trade and Regional Integration
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This paper assesses and compares the economic impacts of four actual and potential free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region: the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the original Trans Pacific Partnership, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific. Free trade areas with a larger scale and wider membership are expected to produce higher aggregate gains in increased gross domestic product and trade flows. U.S. withdrawal from the original Trans-Pacific Partnership reduced estimated gross domestic product gains for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership countries by about half. For countries belonging to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and also negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the potential gains from an agreement with China and the Republic of Korea are substantial, but not as large as if the United States were to rejoin the original Trans-Pacific Partnership. On a sectoral basis, significant structural shifts are observed for food processing, wearing apparel, textiles, and transport equipment.
Asia-Pacific Trade --- CPTPP --- FTA --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- RCEP --- Regional Trade --- TPP --- Trade Agreement --- Trade And Investment --- Trade and Regional Integration --- Trade Policy --- Trans-Pacific Partnership
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