Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper builds a model-based dynamic monetary and fiscal conditions index (DMFCI) and uses it to examine the evolution of the joint stance of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area (EA) and in its three largest member countries over the period 2007-2018. The index is based on the relative impacts of monetary and fiscal policy on demand using actual and simulated data from rich estimated models featuring also financial intermediaries and long-term government debt. The analysis highlights a short-lived fiscal expansion in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a quick tightening, with monetary policy left to be the “only game in town” after 2013. Individual countries’ DMFCIs show that national policy stances did not always mirror the evolution of the aggregate stance at the EA level, due to heterogeneity in the fiscal stance.

Italy --- Econometrics --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Financial Crises --- Public finance & taxation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal stance --- Expenditure --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models --- Financial crises --- Econometric analysis --- Expenditures, Public --- Econometric models

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Should the China-U.S. trade agreement prompt relief because it averts a damaging trade war or concern because selective preferential access for the United States to China's markets breaks multilateral rules against discrimination? The answer depends on how China implements the agreement. Simulations from a computable general equilibrium model suggest that the United States and China would be better off under this "managed trade" agreement than if the trade war had escalated. However, compared with the policy status quo, the deal will make everyone worse off except the United States and its input-supplying neighbor, Mexico. Real incomes in the rest of world would decline by 0.16 percent and in China by 0.38 percent because of trade diversion. China can reverse those losses if, instead of granting the United States privileged entry, it opens its market for all trading partners. Global income would be 0.6 percent higher than under the managed trade scenario, and China's income would be nearly 0.5 percent higher. By creating a stronger incentive for China to open its markets to all, an exercise in bilateral mercantilism has the potential to become an instrument for multilateral liberalization.

Access to Markets --- Bilateral Mercantilism --- Computable General Equilibrium Model --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Managed Trade --- Preferential Access --- Preferential Trade Agreement --- Trade Diversion --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade War

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are economy-wide simulation tools that can be very useful in answering the policy questions related to closing gender gaps. They allow us to estimate the contributions of gender-inclusive policies, quantify costs and benefits of associated reforms for policy prioritization, identify winners and losers of suggested reforms, and understand transmission channels. They also allow us to estimate distributional and sectoral impact of economy-wide shock such as the containment measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus). This note provides a brief overview of computable general equilibrium model-based analysis in the context of gender-inclusive policies. The purpose of this note is to familiarize non-CGE modelers with this tool and advance discussion on how results derived from it can be used to aid policy dialogue and enhance the design and implementation of gender activities in operations, leading to more gender-inclusive economies and sustainable results for women on the ground. The note covers what the World Bank has been doing on this front, data requirements for such analysis, and how to chart the way forward.

Computable General Equilibrium --- Economic Theory and Research --- Employment and Unemployment --- Gender --- Gender and Economics --- Inequality --- Labor Markets --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Sustainable Development Goals

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper estimates the neutral interest rate in the Kyrgyz Republic using a range of methodologies. Results indicate that the real neutral rate is about 4 percent based on an average of models and 3.7 percent based on a Quarterly Projection Model. This is higher than in many emerging markets and is likely explained by higher public debt and an elevated risk premium, low creditor rights and contractual enforcement, and low domestic savings. The use of an estimate of the neutral interest rate provides useful guidance to monetary policy and enhances transparency and independence of the central bank. Our estimate provides a quantitative benchmark for the monetary policy stance in the context of a central bank that is building analytical capacity, integrating additional insights in its decision-making process, and working to improve its communication. Strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism will be critical to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, including by allowing more exchange rate flexibility to support the transition to a full-fledged inflation targeting regime, and reducing excess liquidity to enhance the credit channel, reducing dollarization and high interest rate spreads that adversely affect the transmission of the policy rate to the economy.

Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Econometrics --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Real interest rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Output gap --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Financial services --- Production --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary policy --- Interest rates --- Economic theory --- Econometric models --- Kyrgyz Republic

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks are a dominant natural disturbance in the forests of Canada and northeastern USA. Widespread, severe defoliation by this native insect results in large-scale mortality and growth reductions of spruce (Picea sp.) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) forests, and largely determines future age–class structure and productivity. The last major spruce budworm outbreak defoliated over 58 million hectares in the 1970s–1980s, and caused 32–43 million m3/year of timber volume losses from 1978 to 1987, in Canada. Management to deal with spruce budworm outbreaks has emphasized forest protection, spraying registered insecticides to prevent defoliation and keep trees alive. Other tactics can include salvage harvesting, altering harvest schedules to remove the most susceptible stands, or reducing future susceptibility by planting or thinning. Chemical insecticides are no longer used, and protection strategies use biological insecticides Bacillus thuringiensis (B.t.) or tebufenozide, a specific insect growth regulator. Over the last five years, a $30 million research project has tested another possible management tactic, termed an ‘early intervention strategy’, aimed at area-wide management of spruce budworm populations. This includes intensive monitoring to detect ‘hot spots’ of rising budworm populations before defoliation occurs, targeted insecticide treatment to prevent spread, and detailed research into target and non-target insect effects. The objective of this Special Issue is to compile the most recent research on protection strategies against spruce budworm. A series of papers will describe results and prospects for the use of an early intervention strategy in spruce budworm and other insect management.

pheromone mating disruption --- spruce budworm --- insecticide application --- multi-spectral remote sensing --- simulation --- apparent fecundity --- Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens) --- Pinaceae --- Choristoneura fumiferana --- circadian rhythm --- forest protection --- early intervention strategy --- insect population management --- moth --- survival --- Phialocephala scopiformis --- moths --- optimized treatment design --- spatial-temporal patterns --- monitoring --- modelling --- science communication --- decision support system --- population control --- area-wide management --- tortricidae --- insect susceptibility --- egg recruitment --- annual defoliation --- treatment threshold --- Maine --- dispersal --- growth rate --- forest pests --- Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) --- mixed effect models --- intertree variance --- endophytic fungi --- Acadian region --- insecticides --- defoliation --- Abies balsamea --- Picea glauca --- immigration --- defoliation prediction --- early intervention --- Quebec --- phenology --- aerobiology --- economic losses --- spatial autocorrelation --- foliage protection --- computable general equilibrium model --- economic and ecological cost: benefit analyses --- hardwood content --- plant tolerance --- Lepidoptera --- migration