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Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income followed by stages of acceleration and then saturation at high-income levels. Historical trends in energy efficiency have reduced energy demand, globally, by about 1.2 percent per year and have, thus, helped bring forward a plateau in energy demand for high income countries. At middle incomes energy and income move in lockstep. The decline in the manufacturing share of value added, globally, accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of the energy efficiency gains. At the country level, the decline (rise) of the manufacturing sector has reduced (increased) US (China) energy demand by 4.1 (10.7) percent between 1990 and 2017.

Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Natural Resources --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Environment and Growth --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Manufacturing industries --- Energy industries & utilities --- Personal income --- Manufacturing --- Consumption --- Energy prices --- Oil prices --- National accounts --- Economic sectors --- Energy pricing --- Expenditure --- Income --- Economics --- Expenditures, Public --- China, People's Republic of

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• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income followed by stages of acceleration and then saturation at high-income levels. Historical trends in energy efficiency have reduced energy demand, globally, by about 1.2 percent per year and have, thus, helped bring forward a plateau in energy demand for high income countries. At middle incomes energy and income move in lockstep. The decline in the manufacturing share of value added, globally, accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of the energy efficiency gains. At the country level, the decline (rise) of the manufacturing sector has reduced (increased) US (China) energy demand by 4.1 (10.7) percent between 1990 and 2017.

China, People's Republic of --- Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Natural Resources --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Environment and Growth --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Manufacturing industries --- Energy industries & utilities --- Personal income --- Manufacturing --- Consumption --- Energy prices --- Oil prices --- National accounts --- Economic sectors --- Energy pricing --- Expenditure --- Income --- Economics --- Expenditures, Public

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• EndNote
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This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.

Iraq --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: Energy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Commodity Markets --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Oil production --- Supply shocks --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodities --- Production --- Economic theory --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Supply and demand