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We study the determinants of new and repeated research collaborations, drawing on the co-authorship network of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Working Papers series. Being an outlet where authors express their views on topics of interest, and given that IMF staff is not subject to the “publish-or-perish” conditions of the academia, the IMF Working Papers series constitutes an appropriate testing ground to examine the endogenous nature of co-authorship formation. We show that the co-authorship network is characterized by many authors with few direct co-authors, yet indirectly connected to each other through short co-authorship chains. We find that a shorter distance in the co-authorship network is key for starting research collaborations. Also, higher research productivity, being employed in the same department, and having citizenship of the same region help to start and repeat collaborations. Furthermore, authors with different co-authorship network sizes are more likely to collaborate, possibly reflecting synergies between senior and junior staff members.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics

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This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in selected countries in Central America, including Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Using a vector error correction model to carry out the empirical work, a system representing global activity and the domestic economy, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that confidence has been, on average, the most important driver of investment in these countries, exceeded only by global factors. Since confidence, arguably, can be influenced by policymakers’ decisions, structural reforms to improve the business climate and reduce uncertainty play an important role in promoting investment and economic growth.

Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Confidence. --- Investments, American. --- Central America --- Economic conditions.

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While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.

Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Pandemics --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- Business and Economics. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics: General. --- International Economics. --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General. --- Measurement of Economic Growth. --- Aggregate Productivity. --- Cross-Country Output Convergence. --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania. --- Economic & financial crises & disasters. --- Economics of specific sectors. --- Financial crises. --- Economic sectors. --- Currency crises. --- Informal sector. --- Economics. --- Economic aspects.

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In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.

Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Banks and Banking --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Monetary Policy --- Financial Crises --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Commodity Markets --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Prices --- Banking crises --- Early warning systems --- Commodity prices --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Crisis management --- Central African Republic

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Ensuring that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are efficient and managed prudently is important for economic and social reasons. It is also crucial to contain fiscal risks and reduce the burden on taxpayers from recurrent and large bailouts. Governments need to develop stronger capacity to monitor and mitigate the risks from SOEs. We present a risk tool to benchmark the performance of SOEs relative to their peers and assess their vulnerabilities, including through stress tests. A strategy to mitigate risks requires the right incentives for managers to perform and for government agencies to conduct effective oversight. Incorporating SOEs in overall fiscal targets would promote greater fiscal discipline and transparency.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Budgeting --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Fiscal Policy --- Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, and Grants --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Budgeting & financial management --- Civil service & public sector --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Public enterprises --- Fiscal risks --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Budget planning and preparation --- Contingent liabilities --- Public sector --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Fiscal policy --- Government business enterprises --- Budget --- Finance, Public --- New Zealand