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In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model (Purdue University GTAP model) and a multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model (IMF GIMF model). The quantitative effects of an increase in tariffs reflect different mechanisms at work. Like other models in the trade literature, in GTAP higher tariffs generate a loss in terms of output arising from an inefficient reallocation of resources between sectors. In GIMF instead, as in other DSGE models, tariffs act as a disincentive to factor utilization. We show that the two models/channels can be broadly interpreted as capturing the impact of tariffs on different components of a country’s aggregate production function: aggregate productivity (GTAP) and factor supply/utilization (GIMF). We discuss ways to combine the estimates from these two models to provide a more complete assessment of the macro effects of tariffs.
Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- International Economics --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: Financial Markets --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics
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Emerging markets (EMs) often respond to shocks by intervening in foreign exchange (FX) markets and thus preventing full exchange rate adjustment. This response can serve to dampen the effect of shocks and increase monetary policy space but may also incentivize economic participants to increase risk taking and take on more FX debt. This paper empirically analyzes the role of exchange rate flexibility in affecting such risk taking, by using rolling correlations and difference-in-difference estimations. The results suggest that a shift towards greater exchange rate flexibility often coincides with a decline in external FX debt. The findings also highlight the importance of using complementary policies to deal with financial stability issues related to the exchange rate, such as FX-specific macroprudential policies and policies aimed at promoting financial development.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Exchange rate arrangements --- External debt --- Exchange rates --- Debts, External --- Chile
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This paper argues that there is scope for monetary policy under an exchange rate anchor, and discusses the related monetary policy design and implementation. It shows that the exchange rate can be used as the main monetary policy instrument while the policy rate can target the exchange rate. An exchange rate anchor is compatible with an inflation objective, provided fiscal dominance is not an issue, monetary conditions are supportive of the peg, and the level of international reserves is adequate. The paper argues that, while an exchange rate anchor is more prone to policy inconsistencies, there is ample scope for strengthening monetary policy design and implementation under soft pegs. In that context, the principles of dichotomy and interest rate parity are critical.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate anchor --- Central bank policy rate --- Monetary policy --- Financial services --- Exchange rate policy --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Singapore
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This paper analyzes the legal foundations of central bank digital currency (CBDC) under central bank and monetary law. Absent strong legal foundations, the issuance of CBDC poses legal, financial and reputational risks for central banks. While the appropriate design of the legal framework will up to a degree depend on the design features of the CBDC, some general conclusions can be made. First, most central bank laws do not currently authorize the issuance of CBDC to the general public. Second, from a monetary law perspective, it is not evident that “currency” status can be attributed to CBDC. While the central bank law issue can be solved through rather straithforward law reform, the monetary law issue poses fundmental legal policy challenges.
Business and Economics --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Remittances --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Distributed ledgers --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Central Bank digital currencies --- Currencies --- Central bank legislation --- Legal support in revenue administration --- Payment systems --- Technology --- Money --- Central banks --- Revenue administration --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Revenue --- Clearinghouses --- Canada --- Construction industry.
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We examine the gains from globalization in the presence of firm heterogeneity and potential resource misallocation. We show theoretically that without distortions, bilateral and export liberalizations increase aggregate welfare and productivity, while import liberalization has ambiguous effects. Resource misallocation can either amplify, dampen or reverse the gains from trade. Using model-consistent measures and unique new data on 14 European countries and 20 industries in 1998-2011, we empirically establish that exogenous shocks to export demand and import competition both generate large aggregate productivity gains. Guided by theory, we provide evidence consistent with these effects operating through reallocations across firms in the presence of distortions: (i) Both export and import expansion increase average firm productivity, but the former also shifts activity towards more productive firms, while the latter acts in reverse; (ii) Both export and import exposure raise the productivity threshold for survival, but this cut-off is not a sufficient statistic for aggregate productivity; (iii) Efficient institutions, factor and product markets amplify the gains from import competition but dampen those from export access.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Production and Operations Management --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Finance --- Productivity --- Exports --- Imports --- Trade liberalization --- Competition --- Production --- International trade --- Financial markets --- Industrial productivity --- Commercial policy --- China, People's Republic of
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The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase—observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect—is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.
Accounting --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- International Financial Markets --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Macroeconomics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- International economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Depreciation --- Financial statements --- External debt --- Currency mismatches --- Exchange rates --- National accounts --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Saving and investment --- Finance, Public --- Debts, External --- Financial risk management --- United States
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