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The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a serious threat to the survival of Japanese firms, highlighting the importance of understanding how and why firms exit. In this paper, we use a rich firm-level dataset of Japanese firms to document how firm exit patterns have evolved between 2007 and 2017. Firm exit patterns have been heavily influenced by Japan’s demographic trends, as a majority of exits in recent years were voluntary exits of firms (business closures) owned by CEOs aged 65 years or older without business successors. In contrast to this increase in voluntary exits, other “traditional” firm exits (such as bankruptcies), have declined. These findings underscore the importance of addressing business transition issues in a rapidly aging society.

Corporate Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Demography --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Population & demography --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Manufacturing industries --- International economics --- Aging --- Small and medium enterprises --- Manufacturing --- Interest payments --- Demographic change --- Population and demographics --- Economic sectors --- External debt --- Population aging --- Small business --- Debt service --- Demographic transition --- Japan

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The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of demographic features into the model. The analysis presented illustrates how these new features enable the model to estimate some of the macroeconomic consequences of changing demographics.

United States --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demographic Economics: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Population & demography --- Population & migration geography --- Labour --- income economics --- Aging --- Population growth --- Population and demographics --- Labor --- Demographic change --- Population --- Population aging --- Labor economics --- Demographic transition --- Income economics