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We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banking --- Finance --- Systemic risk --- Interbank markets --- Consumer loans --- Loans --- Banks and banking --- Financial risk management --- International finance