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This paper assesses the dynamic impact of global macroeconomic conditions, commodity price movements, shifts in portfolio preferences, and domestic shocks on fiscal outcomes—notably the budget deficit, its main components, and debt—across a wide range of countries. Heterogeneity is investigated across the level of development and other structural characteristics. Dynamics are explored via panel local projections, while robustness is assessed via dynamic panel and system GMM regressions. World growth, financial risk appetite, political events, and commodity export prices are key determinants of fiscal outcomes in EM, while domestic growth, commodity import prices, and banking crises appear to matter more in AE. Our estimates help quantify the amount of fiscal risk generated by various factors, and thus provide inputs for the design of potential insurance mechanisms or state-contingent debt instruments that could assist in smoothing fiscal fluctuations.

Business and Economics --- Commodity Markets --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodity prices --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, Public --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal stance --- Government debt management --- International Fiscal Issues --- International Public Goods --- Macroeconomics --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Prices --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Sovereign Debt

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This paper applies state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to develop the first sentiment index measuring member countries’ reception of IMF policy advice at the time of Article IV Consultations. This paper finds that while authorities of member countries largely agree with Fund advice, there is variation across country size, external openness, policy sectors and their assessed riskiness, political systems, and commodity export intensity. The paper also looks at how sentiment changes during and after a financial arrangement or program with the Fund, as well as when a country receives IMF technical assistance. The results shed light on key aspects on Fund surveillance while redefining how the IMF can view its relevance, value added, and traction with its member countries.

Canada --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other Computer Software --- Commodity Markets --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- Machine learning --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Financial Sector Assessment Program --- Financial sector --- Commodity prices --- Prices --- Technology --- Economic sectors --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial services industry

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This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.

Iraq --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: Energy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Commodity Markets --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Oil production --- Supply shocks --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodities --- Production --- Economic theory --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Supply and demand