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We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
Protectionism --- Tariff --- Industrial productivity --- Economic aspects. --- Ad valorem tariff --- Border taxes --- Customs (Tariff) --- Customs duties --- Duties --- Fees, Import --- Import controls --- Import fees --- Tariff on raw materials --- Commercial policy --- Indirect taxation --- Revenue --- Customs administration --- Favored nation clause --- Non-tariff trade barriers --- Reciprocity (Commerce) --- Free trade and protection --- Productivity, Industrial --- TFP (Total factor productivity) --- Total factor productivity --- Industrial efficiency --- Production (Economic theory) --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Taxation --- Production and Operations Management --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Tariffs --- Trade balance --- Productivity --- Real exchange rates --- Taxes --- International trade --- Production --- Balance of trade --- Czech Republic
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Europe is deeply integrated into global value chains and recent trade tensions raise the question of how European economies would be affected by the introduction of tariffs or other trade barriers. This paper estimates the impact of trade shocks and growth spillovers using value added measures to better gauge the associated costs across European countries.
Value added --- Tariff --- International economic relations. --- Economic aspects --- Economic aspects. --- Europe --- Europe. --- Foreign economic relations. --- Added value --- Manufacturing processes --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Ad valorem tariff --- Border taxes --- Customs (Tariff) --- Customs duties --- Duties --- Fees, Import --- Import controls --- Import fees --- Tariff on raw materials --- Commercial policy --- Indirect taxation --- Revenue --- Customs administration --- Favored nation clause --- Non-tariff trade barriers --- Reciprocity (Commerce) --- Council of Europe countries --- Eastern Hemisphere --- Eurasia --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Globalization --- Globalization: General --- Trade: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Externalities --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Public finance & taxation --- Global value chains --- Exports --- Tariffs --- Spillovers --- Trade balance --- International trade --- Taxes --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International finance --- Balance of trade --- United States
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