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This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, but only in the short run as the impact phases out within two years after the shock. The results also suggest that the negative effect of fuel price increase on exports is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and countries where access to an alternative source of energy, such as electricity, is constrained, thus preventing producers from altering energy consumption mix in response to fuel price changes.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Natural Resources --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International economics --- Fuel prices --- Export performance --- Energy prices --- Real exports --- International trade --- National accounts --- Exports --- China, People's Republic of
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Selected Issues.
Investments: Energy --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Electric Utilities --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Electricity --- Tariffs --- Private investment --- Energy sector --- Consumption --- Electric utilities --- Tariff --- Saving and investment --- Energy industries --- Economics --- Kyrgyz Republic
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We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Macroeconomics. --- Economics --- Russia --- Saudi Arabia --- Great Britain --- Economic conditions. --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Labor Economics: General --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Labor --- Oil --- Consumption --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Commodities --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Labor economics --- Petroleum industry and trade
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This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance appear to be the most binding constraints to private investment and growth. Additional critical factors are the quality of education and onerous regulations. There is room to improve both the quality and cost/efficiency of education spending. Although relatively low, labor costs have exceeded productivity growth and there is room to improve labor market efficiency. Despite important investments, the infrastructure gap remains large and the country ranks relatively low on infrastructure quality. Weak governance undermines growth through various channels: investment, human capital, and productivity. Weak institutions increase the cost of doing business and make the appropriation of investment returns less certain, overall reducing investor’s risk appetite to invest. Public debt is on the high side and the composition of spending is tilted toward current spending.
Fiscal policy--Kyrgyzstan. --- Kyrgyzstan--Economic conditions. --- Kyrgyzstan--Economic policy. --- Investments: Energy --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Electric Utilities --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Electricity --- Tariffs --- Private investment --- Energy sector --- Consumption --- Commodities --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Economic sectors --- Electric utilities --- Tariff --- Saving and investment --- Energy industries --- Economics --- Kyrgyz Republic --- Fiscal policy.
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