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This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern Europe. In the emerging European economies, the key determinants of shadow economy size are regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and human capital. The paper argues that a comprehensive package of reforms, focused on country-specific drivers, is needed to successfully combat the shadow economy. The menu of policies most relevant for Europe’s emerging economies include: reducing regulatory and administrative burdens, promoting transparency and improving government effectiveness, as well as improving tax compliance, automating procedures, and promoting electronic payments.
Labor --- Economics: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Informal economy --- Informal employment --- Human capital --- Public employment --- Labor force participation --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Labor market
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A well-functioning financial management information system (FMIS) provides timely, reliable, and comprehensive reports that support implementation of the government’s fiscal policies and fiscal rules, and the formulating, controlling, monitoring, and executing of the budget. The architecture of FMISs has undergone a transformation since these systems were first developed in the 1980s. Rather than attempting to cover all or most public financial management (PFM) functions, many FMISs now focus on a few core functions such as accounting and reporting, budget execution, and cash management. Yet a survey of 46 countries shows that many face severe challenges in transforming their FMIS into an effective tool of fiscal governance. These challenges relate to weaknesses in the system’s core functions, its institutional coverage, the information technology platforms it uses, and the ease of sharing data with other IT systems. This How to Note discusses how to address these chal-lenges. Replacing an FMIS with an entirely new system may not be an optimal strategy. By utilizing the latest technology, a better approach may be to update or replace one or more core modules of the system: the so-called modular approach. Implementation of an effective FMIS, however, depends on two critical preconditions: strong political motivation and commitment, and the system’s ability to meet ongoing and anticipated PFM needs.
Economics: General --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Foreign Exchange --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic sectors --- Financial crises --- PFM information systems --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Currency crises --- Finance, Public
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This paper seeks to illuminate the uncertainty in official GDP per capita measures using auxiliary data. Using satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an additional measurement of true GDP per capita, we provide a statistical framework, in which the error in official GDP per capita may depend on the country’s statistical capacity and the relationship between nighttime lights and true GDP per capita can be nonlinear and vary with geographic location. This paper uses recently developed results for measurement error models to identify and estimate the nonlinear relationship between nighttime lights and true GDP per capita and the nonparametric distribution of errors in official GDP per capita data. We then construct more precise and robust measures of GDP per capita using nighttime lights, official national accounts data, statistical capacity, and geographic locations. We find that GDP per capita measures are less precise for middle and low income countries and nighttime lights can play a bigger role in improving such measures.
Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Evaluation. --- Macroeconomics --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Methodological Issues: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Economics of specific sectors --- GDP measurement --- Personal income --- Informal economy --- National accounts --- Income --- Economic sectors --- National income --- Informal sector --- United States
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This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita. Our results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear. Our findings suggest that special attention should be given to the country’s level of development when designing policies to tackle issues related to the shadow economy.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Economics: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Institutions and Growth --- Education and Economic Development --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Education: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Labor Economics: General --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Education --- Labour --- income economics --- Informal economy --- Tax incidence --- Labor --- Economic sectors --- Tax policy --- Prices --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Tax administration and procedure --- Labor economics --- United States
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