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Meaningful use of advanced Bayesian methods requires a good understanding of the fundamentals. This engaging book explains the ideas that underpin the construction and analysis of Bayesian models, with particular focus on computational methods and schemes. The unique features of the text are the extensive discussion of available software packages combined with a brief but complete and mathematically rigorous introduction to Bayesian inference. The text introduces Monte Carlo methods, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and Bayesian software, with additional material on model validation and comparison, transdimensional MCMC, and conditionally Gaussian models. The inclusion of problems makes the book suitable as a textbook for a first graduate-level course in Bayesian computation with a focus on Monte Carlo methods. The extensive discussion of Bayesian software - R/R-INLA, OpenBUGS, JAGS, STAN, and BayesX - makes it useful also for researchers and graduate students from beyond statistics.
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"The past two decades have seen econometrics grow into a vast discipline. Many different branches of the subject now happily coexist with one another. These branches interweave econometric theory and empirical applications and bring econometric method to bear on a myriad of economic issues"--
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Decision Making --- Economics, Mathematical --- Probabilities --- Statistical decision
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Chinook salmon --- Streamflow --- Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Migration --- Data processing.
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"Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid belt, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief ; Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for ; Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions ; Calculate distributions to see the range of your data ; Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them. Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data." [Publisher]
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Statistique bayésienne. --- Probabilities. --- Probabilités.
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Volume 40 in the Advances in Econometrics series features twenty-three chapters that are split thematically into two parts. Part A presents novel contributions to the analysis of time series and panel data with applications in macroeconomics, finance, cognitive science and psychology, neuroscience, and labor economics. Part B examines innovations in stochastic frontier analysis, nonparametric and semiparametric modeling and estimation, A/B experiments, big-data analysis, and quantile regression. Individual chapters, written by both distinguished researchers and promising young scholars, cover many important topics in statistical and econometric theory and practice. Papers primarily, though not exclusively, adopt Bayesian methods for estimation and inference, although researchers of all persuasions should find considerable interest in the chapters contained in this work. The volume was prepared to honor the career and research contributions of Professor Dale J. Poirier. For researchers in econometrics, this volume includes the most up-to-date research across a wide range of topics.
Quantitative methods (economics) --- Econometrics --- Bayesian statistical decision theory --- Stochastic analysis --- E-books --- Analysis, Stochastic --- Mathematical analysis --- Stochastic processes --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Economics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Econometrics. --- Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Stochastic analysis. --- Business & Economics
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Bayesian networks (BN) have recently experienced increased interest and diverse applications in numerous areas, including economics, risk analysis and assets and liabilities management, AI and robotics, transportation systems planning and optimization, political science analytics, law and forensic science assessment of agency and culpability, pharmacology and pharmacogenomics, systems biology and metabolomics, psychology, and policy-making and social programs evaluation. This strong and varied response results not least from the fact that plausibilistic Bayesian models of structures and processes can be robust and stable representations of causal relationships. Additionally, BNs' amenability to incremental or longitudinal improvement through incorporating new data affords extra advantages compared to traditional frequentist statistical methods. Contributors to this volume elucidate various new developments in these aspects of BNs.
Bayesian statistical decision theory --- Mathematical statistics. --- Data processing. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Mathematics --- Statistical inference --- Statistics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Probabilities --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Statistical methods --- Mathematical modelling
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Outside back cover : "Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features : Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models -- Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more -- Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed -- Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications. A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course."
Bayesian statistical decision theory --- Decision making --- Risk management --- Bayes Theorem --- Probability --- Decision Making --- Risk Management
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This book focuses on the structural analysis of demand under block rate pricing, a type of nonlinear pricing used mainly in public utility services. In this price system, consumers are presented with several unit prices, which makes a naive analysis biased. However, the response to the price schedule is often of interest in economics and plays an important role in policymaking. To address this issue, the book adopts a structural approach, referred to as the discrete/continuous choice approach in the literature, to develop corresponding statistical models for analysis.The resulting models are extensions of the Tobit model, a well-known statistical model in econometrics, and their hierarchical structure fits well in Bayesian methodology. Thus, the book takes the Bayesian approach and develops the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to conduct statistical inferences. The methodology derived is then applied to real-world datasets, microdata collected in Tokyo and the neighboring Chiba Prefecture, as a useful empirical analysis for prediction as well as policymaking.
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Statistics . --- Financial engineering. --- Economic policy. --- Statistics for Business, Management, Economics, Finance, Insurance. --- Statistical Theory and Methods. --- Bayesian Inference. --- Financial Engineering. --- R & D/Technology Policy. --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Computational finance --- Engineering, Financial --- Finance --- Statistical analysis --- Statistical data --- Statistical methods --- Statistical science --- Mathematics --- Econometrics
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