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Dating business cycle turning points is still an important task for economic policy decisions. This study does this for the Austrian economy for the period between 1976 and 2005, using only quarterly national accounts data of Austria, Germany and the euro area. Three different filtering methods are applied: first-order differences, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and the Baxter-King filter. To all of them, two different methods of determining the business cycle are applied: the ad-hoc determination of the business cycle and a dynamic factor model, taking into account the common variations of Austria, the euro area and the German business cycle movements. The results of both methods are dated by the Bry-Boschan algorithm in order to locate peaks and troughs of the cycle. The results are interpreted and compared to already exiting studies on the euro area and the Austrian business cycle.

Business cycles --- History --- History. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Österreich --- Konjunkturzyklus --- Austrian --- Business --- Context --- Cycle --- European --- Geschichte 1976-2005 --- Konjunktur --- Konjunkturanalyse --- Österreich --- Scheiblecker

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Lithuania’s current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit. We explore this relationship in more detail by analyzing the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during1995-2017. We find a high degree of synchronization between Lithuania’s credit and housing price cycles. Panel regressions show a strong correlation between a credit upturn and housing price upturn. Moreover, panel VAR suggests that shocks in housing prices, credit, and output within and outside Lithuania strongly impact Lithuania’s credit.

Financial planners. --- Accredited personal financial specialists --- Planners --- Investment advisors --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International Business Cycles --- Globalization: Finance --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Financial Crises --- Property & real estate --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Housing prices --- Credit --- Credit cycles --- Financial crises --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Prices --- Money --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Housing --- Business cycles --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Lithuania, Republic of

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Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.

Econometrics --- Public Finance --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Estimation --- Public finance & taxation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public debt --- Estimation techniques --- Econometric analysis --- Debts, Public --- Econometric models --- Thailand

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We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic Integration --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic growth --- International economics --- Business cycles --- Personal income --- Financial cycles --- Monetary unions --- National accounts --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Prices --- Economic integration --- Income --- Germany

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Using a database of up to 62 variables for 196 countries over 57 years, a hyperinflation cycle has been characterized to propose a broader setting of stylized facts. Beyond the usual facts, the findings in this paper contribute to the literature of modern hyperinflations in that these cycles occur in contexts where there are (i) depressed economic freedoms, (ii) deteriorated socioeconomic conditions and rule of law, as well as (iii) high levels of domestic conflictivity and government instability. Despite social infraestructure factors improve during stabilization, they keep being substantially lower than the respresentative non-hyperinflation country, suggesting an important role for them in the occurrence of modern hypeinflations. Finally, the role of international financial assistance in stabilization was studied, noting that (i) a clear majority of hyperinflation countries used it, further improving their (ii) economic freedoms, and allowing themselves (iii) greater fiscal flexibility and (iv) more exchange rate stability.

Business cycles. --- Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics --- Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Hyperinflation --- External debt --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Debts, External --- Congo, Democratic Republic of the