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Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting.

Forecasting --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Neural Networks and Related Topics --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Machine learning --- Economic Forecasting --- Artificial intelligence --- Economic forecasting --- Technology --- United States

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Over the last quarter century, no other city like Miami has rapidly transformed into a global city. The Global Edge charts the social tensions and unexpected consequences of this remarkable process of change. Acting as a follow-up to the highly successful City on the Edge, The Global Edge examines Miami in the context of globalization and scrutinizes its newfound place as a major international city. Written by two well-known scholars in the field, the book examines Miami's rise as a finance and banking center and the simultaneous emergence of a highly diverse but contentious ethnic mosaic. The Global Edge serves as a case study of Miami's present cultural, economic, and political transformation, and describes how its future course can provide key lessons for other metropolitan areas throughout the world.

Sociology, Urban --- Miami (Fla.) --- Social conditions. --- Economic conditions. --- banking center. --- cultural transformation. --- diverse city. --- economic transformation. --- ethnic mosaic. --- finance. --- florida. --- global city. --- globalization. --- hispanic american studies. --- immigration. --- major international city. --- metropolitan areas. --- miami. --- political transformation. --- process of change. --- social tensions. --- unexpected consequences. --- urban sociology.

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Despite significant headwinds from population aging in most advanced economies (AEs), labor force participation rates show remarkably divergent trajectories both across countries and across different groups of workers. Participation increased sharply among prime-age women and, more recently, older workers, but fell among the young and prime-age men. This pa- per investigates the determinants of these trends using aggregate and individual-level data. We find that the bulk of the dramatic increase in the labor force attachment of prime-age women and older workers in the past three decades can be explained by changes in labor mar- ket policies and institutions, structural transformation, and gains in educational attainment. Technological advances such as automation, on the other hand, weighed on the labor supply of prime-age and older workers. In light of the dramatic demographic shifts expected in the coming decades in many AEs, our findings underscore the need to invest in education and training, reform the tax system, reduce early retirement incentives, improve the job-matching process, and help individuals combine family and work life in order to alleviate the pressures from aging on labor supply.

Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Education: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Labour --- income economics --- Education --- Population & demography --- Labor force participation --- Labor force --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Population aging --- United States

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Like American politics, the academic debate over justice is polarized, with almost all theories of justice falling within one of two traditions: egalitarianism and libertarianism. This book provides an alternative to the partisan standoff by focusing not on equality or liberty, but on the idea that we should give people the things that they deserve. Mulligan sets forth a theory of economic justice - meritocracy - which rests upon a desert principle and is distinctive from existing work in two ways. First, meritocracy is grounded in empirical research on how human beings think, intuitively, about justice. Research in social psychology and experimental economics reveals that people simply don’t think that social goods should be distributed equally, nor do they dismiss the idea of social justice. Across ideological and cultural lines, people believe that rewards should reflect merit. Second, the book discusses hot-button political issues and makes concrete policy recommendations. These issues include anti-meritocratic bias against women and racial minorities and the United States’ widening economic inequality. Justice and the Meritocratic State offers a new theory of justice and provides solutions to our most vexing social and economic problems. It will be of keen interest to philosophers, economists, and political theorists.

State, The --- Justice (Philosophy) --- Merit (Ethics) --- Moral and ethical aspects. --- Political aspects. --- Desert (Ethics) --- Moral desert (Ethics) --- Ethics --- Philosophy --- Administration --- Commonwealth, The --- Sovereignty --- Political science --- Anarchy --- A Theory of Justice --- capital --- consequences --- cronyism --- David Miller --- desert --- desert-based theory of justice --- distributive justice --- economic justice --- egalitarianism --- equality --- equal opportunity --- essentialism --- George Sher --- inheritance tax --- intuition --- John Rawls --- Justice and the Meritocratic State --- justice --- libertarianism --- liberty --- meritocracy --- meritocratic public policy --- nepotism --- personal identity --- political philosophy --- public policy --- Robert Nozick --- State, and Utopia

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Finance & Development, June 2018.

Money and Monetary Policy --- Taxation --- Industries: Financial Services --- Diseases: Contagious --- Automation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Health Behavior --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Distributed ledgers --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Labour --- income economics --- Virtual currencies --- Currencies --- Communicable diseases --- Tax avoidance --- Technology --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Money --- Tax evasion --- Japan