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With growth in Europe and Central Asia likely at its peak, this report addresses two questions. Howwell is the region prepared for an expected slowdown? How well has the economic upswing beenused to adjust to the digital revolution? The report specifically focuses on cryptocurrency andblockchain activities in the region.
Economic Forecasts --- Global Value Chains --- Shift To High-Skill Intensive Report --- Tradable Services --- Trade --- Transition
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South Africa's weak post-apartheid trade performance has been a significant factor in its inability to create more jobs and achieve higher growth and productivity. Exports and inbound foreign direct investment as a share of gross domestic product have lagged other middle-income countries and both have declined in absolute terms in the past five years. South Africa is losing market share in many of its core export products, both because it is being outcompeted by more dynamic economies in East Asia and owing to its own supply-side and institutional constraints. This loss of global competitiveness in manufacturing has meant that more South African firms have turned to the domestic economy and to less demanding export markets in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. While South Africa can continue growing through a primarily regionally focused strategy, these markets are small, and defaulting to the lower levels of productivity required to compete in the rest of Africa could undermine South Africa's competitiveness in the long term. This paper provides an overview of South Africa's recent trade outcomes, as well as its trade policy framework, and assesses the causes of its disappointing performance. In turn, it suggests changes to trade-related policies as well as the governance and management of these policies. The paper focuses in depth on three specific trade-related constraints: transport costs, the institutional governance of trade tariffs and export promotion, and overall economic policy uncertainty. The paper proceeds to argue that the South African government would benefit from aligning its trade strategy, commercial and economic diplomacy and industrial policy with the dual objective of providing both the engine for a "Factory Southern Africa" that encompasses the rest of the SADC region, and of being the region's gateway to the rest of the world. Since South African firms will not be able to drive this approach on their own, this necessarily means forging policies and institutions that encourage investments into South Africa and the SADC region, and working with neighbors to maximize the development of regional value chains that result from such investments.
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Trade and participation in global value chains can play a key role in economic diversification and development. This paper deepens the discussion about productivity growth and upgrading in agriculture in Africa, and the role of national, regional, and international value chains in supporting such structural change. The analysis in this report is based on quantitative and qualitative surveys undertaken in 2016 in Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia, where 3,935 farmers, 60 aggregators, and 56 buyers in the maize, cassava, and sorghum value chains were interviewed in the three countries. The descriptive results show that farmers who were on a contract saw greater structural transformation; higher output; and better access to seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, technology, and extension services compared with farmers who were not on a contract. To identify more robustly the link between value chain participation and contract farming with productivity and upgrading, the paper looks at the relationship using a variety of empirical methodologies, ranging from ordinary least squares and probit regressions to propensity score matching. Based on the empirical evidence, the hypothesis that value chain participation leads to structural transformation cannot be confirmed. The paper does find evidence that formal or informal contractual arrangements that regulate the provision of inputs to production, such as fertilizer, technology, extension services, and market information, positively affect upgrading. It remains nevertheless important to understand the impact of government policies on the emergence of value chains given that value chains support contractual arrangements.
Agricultural Productivity --- Agriculture --- Diversification --- Extension Services --- Input Chain --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Economics --- Productivity --- Value Chains
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Global value chain participation affects the exchange rate pass-through to export prices and export volumes. The paper develops a partial equilibrium model of international trade with cross-border production and shows that higher participation in global value chains reduces the elasticities. Specifically, a higher share of foreign value added in exports reduces the exchange rate pass-through to export prices and export volumes. A greater share of exports that return as imports also reduces the responsiveness of export volumes to changes in bilateral exchange rates. Finally, exports of inputs that are further re-exported increase the responsiveness to the trading partner's effective exchange rate. Using a novel sector-level panel dataset with 40 countries, the analysis tests and finds strong empirical support for the theoretical predictions. The paper further shows that some sectors in some countries can even experience a decline in gross exports when their currency depreciates.
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This paper studies the production and trade linkages between a selected group of economies belonging to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). After defining a group of Belt and Road Economies, the paper uses three standard trade databases to analyze trade and production linkages among these economies. With the help of state of the art economic decompositions of input-output tables, coupled with standard international trade statistics, the analysis quantifies the amount of production sharing between the economies of the area. The main finding is that trade integration among Belt and Road Economies has largely increased: Intraregional exports went from 30.6 percent in 1995 to 43.3 percent in 2015. Since the increase in gross exports was driven mostly by intermediate goods, the study investigates the evolution of regional production networks across Belt and Road Economies.
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The paper is structured in six further sections following this introduction. Section two develops a conceptual framework, and reviews the literature on the relationship between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Section three outlines the empirical framework and data used in the analysis. Section four presents results on the relationship between overall trade integration (through exports) and labor market outcomes. Section five then focuses specifically on GVC trade, and assesses the relationship between labor market outcomes and GVC integration as a buyer and as a seller. Section six tests if select policy indicators mediate these relationships between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Finally, section seven concludes, with a summary of results and areas for future research.
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Participation in global value chains is a key element in the industrialization strategies of many developing nations. This paper investigates the role of services liberalization in promoting participation in global value chains. Using the gravity framework, it examines the impact of services trade agreements on gross trade and global value chain trade (backward and forward participation) in goods. It finds that services trade agreements promote both, but especially global value chain trade, although the effects are heterogeneous: the impact is greater for developing nation exporters. Moreover, services agreements that allow the export of services without local presence (non-establishment rights) are particularly important in fostering participation in global value chains.
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Smallholder production predominates in many areas of primary food production in Indonesia. Yet, outside of oil palm and poultry, contract farming is rare as are other forms of collective action or vertical coordination. Fragmented production and market interfaces give rise to high transaction costs and problems in matching supply with downstream or consumer requirements. Yet, there is a growing body of international experience promoting multiple models to help realize some economies of scale within smallholder-based production systems and effectively addressing the aggregation and market-matching problems. These include different forms of joint farming operations, shared services, farmer organizations, contracting arrangements or partnerships with agro-enterprises, and other models. Their suitability and need for public enabling support varies depending upon the underlying circumstances. This note synthesizes experiences, lessons learned, and success factors with potential relevance for Indonesian staple food crop and horticultural production.
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This paper introduces a new, publicly available database for tracking merchandise trade in the global value chains for apparel/textile/footwear, motor vehicles and parts, and electronics, developed originally for in-depth analysis at the country level. The data enable tracking of intermediate and final goods trade by country. Among other results, the study finds that East Asia and Pacific is the most global value chain-intensive region, and Sub-Saharan Africa is the least global value chain-intensive region. Final assembly of motor vehicles is significantly more sophisticated (takes place in higher income countries), while final apparel is the least sophisticated global value chain category and is geographically dispersed. In general, intermediate goods are more likely to be traded within regions, and final goods are more likely to be traded between regions. South Asia produces a large value of relatively unsophisticated global value chain exports, focusing on apparel and textiles; North American exports are the most sophisticated. Within categories, the degree of product sophistication varies markedly.
Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Exports --- Global Value Chains --- Industrial Economics --- Inter-Regional Integration --- International Economics and Trade --- Technology Industry --- Technology Innovation
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As the World Bank's 2012 Golden Growth report emphasized, the European Union, since its founding, has been a 'convergence machine,' generating wealth and a higher quality of life for the poorest in the 28 EU member states. More recently, the Growing United report highlighted that while the convergence machine still works, it is not working for everyone. And among the fault lines emerging in the convergence machine, regional inequality represents a potent threat to Europe's economic well-being, and to its social and political cohesion. In this context, Rethinking Lagging Regions highlights the nature and implications of regional inequalities in Europe and recommends how cohesion policy can be leveraged to maximize its impact on lagging regions, and on the businesses and people in these regions. The report has several key messages: regional inequalities are high and likely to rise; Europe's lagging regions are going in opposite directions, but face common challenges; cohesion policy can maximize its impact on lagging regions by explicitly targeting regional potential and equality of opportunity rather than convergence; cohesion policy priorities can be rebalanced to help deliver on regional potential; and delivery of regional policy needs to engage ever more deeply at the ground level. This report aims to contribute to the debate on the future of cohesion policy, with a specific focus on lagging regions. It calls for a further shift in the objectives of cohesion policy towards an increasingly 'region-centered' approach that aims to maximize potential in all regions, while seeking convergence of opportunities for individuals, no matter where they live.
Agricultural Productivity --- Business Environment --- Competitiveness and Competition Policy --- Demographics --- Export Competitiveness --- Global Value Chains and Business Clustering --- Inequality --- Innovation --- Labor Markets --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Social Protections and Labor
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