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China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets
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ISBN: 1484389247 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

A cross-country comparative analysis shows that there is substantial room for further integration of China into global financial markets, especially in the case of the international bond market. A further successful liberalization of the Chinese bond market would encompass not only loosening bond market regulations, but also further developing of other markets, notably the foreign exchange market. Even though the increased integration of China into international capital markets would increase its exposure to the global financial cycle, the costs in terms of monetary autonomy would not be large given China’s size and especially under a well-articulated macroeconomic framework.


Book
Globalization and the New Normal
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ISBN: 1484351223 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.


Book
Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models
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ISBN: 1484355725 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.


Book
Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile.
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ISBN: 1484368010 1484363108 9781484363102 9781484368015 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund

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This paper assesses the quality of the CBC’s communication policy by looking at the predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy communications by the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). To do so, we construct indeces of monetary policy surprises for the three major communication channels of the CBC: the release of policy meetings’ statements, minutes, and monetary policy reports (IPoM). We assess monetary policy predictability and efficacy by looking at the size and time-evolution of monetary policy surprises associated with meeting statements and the impact of the above communication channels on asset markets. We find that, in general, the CBC’s has been effective in its forward guidance through its statements and IPoM. Policy actions are quite predictable, especially post the global financia crisis. The response of equity prices and the exchange rate to monetary policy surprises have the right sign but are not robust. We also find an asymmetric response of equity prices to minutes suggesting that market participants extract information on the status of the economy especially when minutes have a loosening effect. Finally, to look at the macroeconomic impact we find that a 100 bps monetary policy tightening shock implies a decline in economic activity (IMACEC) of about 2 pp. after one year, while the response of inflation is more muted.


Book
Organizing Central Securities Depositories in Developing Markets—7 Considerations
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ISBN: 1484348516 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Central securities depositories (CSDs) are systemically important entities that are critical for effective implementation of monetary policy, the credibility of a government’s debt management program, collateral management, and safe and efficient securities markets. Authorities in developing markets, in particular central banks, may grapple with the following issues: i) whether to pursue a single CSD for all types of securities to increase market efficiencies and benefit from economies of scale; and ii) whether to partake in the governance of the CSD as owner and/or operator. This paper develops seven considerations that authorities may take into account in addressing these issues and finding the best model for their country. These may point to different solutions for different countries, depending in part on the size of markets, strength of private operators and level of market development.


Book
The Decision to Delist from the Stock Market : Theory and Empirical Evidence of Going Private
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ISBN: 3319950495 3319950487 Year: 2018 Publisher: Cham : Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan,

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In an organized and organic way, this book covers all the possible theoretical and empirical facets of delisting, adding to the well-developed literature on IPOs. IPO and delisting are strictly related; the reasons for delisting may be found in the loss of the incentives that drove the firm to the public market in the past. However, the book presents unique motivations not directly related to the IPO decision. This book covers what the existing literature has not in focusing on specific aspects such as market liquidity and microstructure, listing costs, market for corporate control, corporate governance issues and so on. Of interest to academics and students, this contribution puts all pieces in order and finds a thread that can link each theory to the others.


Book
Investment behaviour : towards an individual-centred financial policy in developing economies
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ISBN: 1787562816 1787562794 9781787562790 9781787562813 1787562808 1787562824 Year: 2018 Publisher: Bingley : Emerald Publishing,

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'Investment Behaviour' explores the relationship between competing demographic factors, personal awareness and perceived attitudes to risk in shaping the behaviour of individual investors in the stock market. Arup Kumar Sarkar and Tarak Nath Sahu analyse the suitability of using Behavioural Finance theories in understanding investor behaviour across developed, developing and under-developed country contexts and in all types of stock markets. Across an in-depth study, the authors examine differing variables impacting on behaviour, give an overview of the empirical and theoretical literature, and also provide an analysis of the empirical findings of their investigation. The book promotes a greater understanding the psychological foundations of human behaviour in financial markets to facilitate the formulation of more individual-centered financial policy.


Book
Moralizing the Market : How Gaullist France Embraced the US Model of Securities Regulation
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ISBN: 142142486X 9781421424866 9781421424859 1421424851 Year: 2018 Publisher: Baltimore, Maryland : Baltimore, Md. : Project Muse, Project MUSE,

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A nation usually overhauls its financial regulations after a stock market crash or the collapse of its banking system. In 1967, France did something rare. Out of pure political expediency, Gaullist leaders and senior civil servants seized the opportunity offered by an insider-trading case and established an independent commission to regulate the securities market: the Commission des Operations de Bourse, or COB. Despite their staunch defense of national sovereignty, these reformers drew their inspiration from an American model, the Securities and Exchange Commission. Highlighting the international sources for national reform, Yves-Marie Pereon's Moralizing the Market explores the dynamics of policy transfer in securities regulation--a subject that has rarely been considered from a historical perspective. That regulation has been used to attract investors and foster market development challenges the view that the French government only attempted to develop the stock market as part of a global wave of deregulation in the 1980s. Indeed, the creation of the COB reveals a great deal about the exercise of power in modern democracies, the interaction between business and government, and the mechanisms of institutional innovation. Moralizing the Market will appeal to professors and students of economic history, international relations, and political science, as well as business and finance historians, policy makers, and professionals.


Book
Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1484390954 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news-sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. We also find evidence that news sentiment affects mainly foreign – rather than local – investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.


Book
Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis
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ISBN: 1484391101 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.

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