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Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.

Petroleum products --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Refining --- Investments: Energy --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Oil prices --- Stock markets --- Asset prices --- Oil --- Stocks --- Financial markets --- Commodities --- Financial institutions --- Stock exchanges --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Kuwait

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This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Trinidad and Tobago is slowly recovering from a deep recession. The economy continued to contract but at a slower pace, underpinned by the strong recovery in gas production, while weak activity in construction, financial services, and trade, continued foreign exchange shortages, and slow pace of public investment dampened non-energy sector growth. Positive growth should return from 2018 as the recovery takes hold in both sectors. Good progress has been made in fiscal consolidation through spending cuts, but public debt continued to rise, approaching the government’s soft target of 65 percent of GDP. Economic prospects are expected to improve over the medium term, but remain heavily dependent on the energy sector.

Monetary policy. --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Industries: Energy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public debt --- Energy sector --- Fiscal consolidation --- Energy pricing --- Economic sectors --- Expenditure --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Energy industries --- Expenditures, Public --- Trinidad and Tobago

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For the world's 20 largest emitters, we use a simple trend/cycle decomposition to provide evidence of decoupling between greenhouse gas emissions and output in richer nations, particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets. If consumption-based emissions—measures that account for countries' net emissions embodied in cross-border trade—are used, the evidence for decoupling in the richer economies gets weaker. Countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and climate change mitigation efforts tend to show greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP, and for both production- and consumption-based emissions. The relationship between trend emissions and trend GDP has also become much weaker in the last two decades than in preceding decades.

Finance: General --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Environmental Policy --- Environment and Growth --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environment and Development --- Environment and Trade --- Sustainability --- Environmental Accounts and Accounting --- Environmental Equity --- Population Growth --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Climate change --- Finance --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Environmental policy --- Climate policy --- Environment --- Financial markets --- Greenhouse gases --- Financial services industry --- Climatic changes --- Germany