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The evolution of risk management has resulted from the interplay of financial crises, risk management practices, and regulatory actions. In the 1970s, research lay the intellectual foundations for the risk management practices that were systematically implemented in the 1980s as bond trading revolutionized Wall Street. Quants developed dynamic hedging, Value-at-Risk, and credit risk models based on the insights of financial economics. In parallel, the Basel I framework created a level playing field among banks across countries. Following the 1987 stock market crash, the near failure of Salomon Brothers, and the failure of Drexel Burnham Lambert, in 1996 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published the Market Risk Amendment to the Basel I Capital Accord; the amendment went into effect in 1998. It led to a migration of bank risk management practices toward market risk regulations. The framework was further developed in the Basel II Accord, which, however, from the very beginning, was labeled as being procyclical due to the reliance of capital requirements on contemporaneous volatility estimates. Indeed, the failure to measure and manage risk adequately can be viewed as a key contributor to the 2008 global financial crisis. Subsequent innovations in risk management practices have been dominated by regulatory innovations, including capital and liquidity stress testing, macroprudential surcharges, resolution regimes, and countercyclical capital requirements.
Banks and banking --- Bank capital --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Risk management. --- State supervision. --- Government policy. --- Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) --- 2008-2009 --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Capital --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Banks and Banking --- Banks --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Cdos --- Credit risk --- Depository Institutions --- Derivative securities --- Financial Instruments --- Financial instruments --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Financial risk management --- Financial services law & regulation --- Financing Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Goodwill --- Industries: Financial Services --- Institutional Investors --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Derivatives --- Investments: General --- Loans --- Market risk --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Pension Funds --- Securities --- Value of Firms --- United States
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Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.
Monetary policy. --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Production --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Macroeconomics --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation targeting --- Central bank policy rate --- Output gap --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Financial services --- Production --- Real interest rates --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Economic theory --- Financial services industry --- Canada
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Variants of nonbank credit intermediation differ greatly. We provide a conceptual framework to help distinguish various characteristics—structural features, economic motivations, and risk implications—associated with different forms of nonbank credit intermediation. Anchored by this framework, we take stock of the evolution of shadow banking and the extent of its transformation into market-based finance since the global financial crisis. In light of the substantial regulatory and supervisory responses of recent years, we highlight key areas of progress while drawing attention to elements where work still needs to be done. Case studies of policy challenges arising in different jurisdictions are also discussed. While many of the amplification forces that were at play during the global financial crisis have diminished, the post-crisis reform agenda is not yet complete, and policy makers must remain attentive to new challenges looming on the horizon.
Financial institutions --- Finance --- Credit --- Stock exchanges --- Business & economics --- Law --- Nonbank financial institutions. --- Intermediation (Finance) --- Credit. --- Law and legislation. --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Commercial banks --- Depository Institutions --- Finance: General --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial sector stability --- Financial services industry --- Financial services --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Industries: Financial Services --- Law and legislation --- Loans --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- Mortgages --- Nonbank financial institutions --- Shadow banking --- United States
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The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk.
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How to effectively implement inflation-forecast targeting, the state of the art for monetary policy.
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Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.
Banks and banking --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Finance. --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Business Cycles --- Monetary Growth Models --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary economics --- Growth-at-risk assessment --- Credit booms --- Credit --- Financial sector risk --- Macrofinancial linkages --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial risk management --- Financial services industry --- United States
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