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Simple macroeconomic frameworks like the IS/LM have survived because they help us conceptualize complex problems while also providing ‘back of the envelope’ estimates of macroeconomic outcomes. Herein, a bare-bones New Keynesian extension of the IS/LM model yields solutions for core macro variables (output gap, inflation, interest rate, real exchange rate misvaluation)—expressed in percent. We then extend that standard model to also generate a corresponding set of demand-side elements—expressed in currency units. A key aim of the paper is to reconcile these two metrics in ways that also aid communication and intuition—including through IS/LM-style graphs.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Economics Education and Teaching of Economics: Undergraduate --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Output gap --- Exports --- Consumption --- Interest rates --- Production --- Economic theory --- Economics
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Private consumption has been a key driver of growth in Brazil for more than a decade. Over this time, Brazilian consumers have benefited from a favorable policy environment, a rapid phase of development—dramatically increasing economic, financial and social inclusion— and a supportive external environment. Meanwhile, infrastructure gaps have widened and investment and productivity levels have fallen behind. The consumption-led growth model now appears to have run its course. The prospect of a period of macroeconomic adjustment presents an opportunity to adjust policy settings to ensure stronger, more balanced and sustainable growth over the medium term.
Consumption (Economics) --- Consumer demand --- Consumer spending --- Consumerism --- Spending, Consumer --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Finance --- Consumption --- Disposable income --- Income --- Real interest rates --- Private consumption --- National accounts --- Financial services --- Economics --- National income --- Interest rates --- Brazil
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We study Japanese household consumption at a disaggregated level focusing on the role of income and asset dynamics. Stagnation of real per capita consumption is widespread acrosslabor market groups, age groups and regions. Consumption-to-income ratios have been mildly increasing due to the rising share of pensioners with significant assets. Evidence therefore suggests that assets have become more important in financing consumption. However, the short-term consumption dynamics remain quite sensitive to income growth but not to asset market movements.
Sustainable development --- Consumption (Economics) --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Finance --- Population & demography --- Consumption --- Income --- Disposable income --- Real interest rates --- Aging --- National accounts --- Financial services --- Household consumption --- Economics --- National income --- Interest rates --- Population aging --- Japan
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This Selected Issues Paper evaluates Kazakhstan’s oil rules, current fiscal stance, and long-term sustainability. The sharp and sustained drop in oil prices since 2014 has reduced the value of Kazakhstan’s oil wealth. Kazakhstan’s non-oil deficit path has been higher than suggested by long-term benchmarks, and adjustment is needed in the coming years to avoid fiscal sustainability risks and to promote intergenerational equity. Price-based fiscal rules can help anchor short- and medium-term fiscal policy. The non-oil deficit path introduced in the new National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan concept is broadly consistent with the proposed approach and should be followed by timely and decisive implementation of revenue and expenditure measures.
Kazakhstan --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Fiscal Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Financial services --- Fiscal policy --- Oil prices --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Real interest rates --- Fiscal stance --- Interest rates --- Production --- Economic theory --- Kazakhstan, Republic of --- Income economics
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This paper analyzes the explosion of tourism in Iceland, which has surged above all expectations. The number of tourists has almost quadrupled since the Eyjafjallajökull eruptions in 2010, establishing tourism at the heart of the economy. Tourists do not seem to be driven mainly by rising incomes at home, nor have they been deterred by rising costs on the back of króna appreciation—which leaves Iceland’s tourism boom largely unexplained by standard econometric models. Instead, Iceland’s natural wonders, welcoming atmosphere, general safety, improving connectedness, and social media outreach have drawn in visitors. Going forward, tourism is likely to grow less rapidly than in recent years, yet remain at strong levels.
Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Sports --- Gambling --- Restaurants --- Recreation --- Tourism --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Financial Crises --- Monetary economics --- Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Bank credit --- Real interest rates --- Credit --- Money --- Economic sectors --- Prices --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- Financial crises --- Iceland
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This Selected Issues paper presents an overview of inter-sectoral exposures in Uruguay. The Uruguayan financial system has been characterized by solid balance sheets, a low level of credit, and continued high dollarization since the crisis in 2002. However, pockets of vulnerability remain, especially after the recent slowdown in economic growth. Nonfinancial public sector (NFPS) gross debt is fairly high at 48 percent of GDP. The NFPS as well as the public sector as a whole have a net open foreign currency position. The nonbank financial system also has a large exposure to government debt.
Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- International Monetary Fund --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Banks and Banking --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Pensions --- Pension spending --- Real interest rates --- Foreign exchange --- Income distribution --- Expenditure --- Financial services --- Credit --- Money --- National accounts --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Uruguay --- Income economics
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We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and private capital, the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity, inefficiencies during the reconstruction process, and damages to the sovereign's creditworthiness. We use the model to study the debt sustainability concerns that arise from the need to rebuild public infrastructure over the medium term and analyze the feasibility of ex ante policies, such as building adaptation infrastructure and fiscal buffers, and contrast these policies with the post-disaster support provided by donors. Investing in resilient infrastructure may prove useful, in particular if it is viewed as complementary to standard infrastructure, because it raises the marginal product of private capital, crowding in private investment, while helping withstand the impact of the natural disaster. In an application to Vanuatu, we find that donors should provide an additional 50% of pre-cyclone GDP in grants to be spent over the following 15 years to ensure public debt remains sustainable following Cyclone Pam. Helping the government build resilience on the other hand, reduces the risk of debt distress and at lower cost for donors.
Emergency management. --- Natural disasters. --- Natural calamities --- Disasters --- Consequence management (Emergency management) --- Disaster planning --- Disaster preparedness --- Disaster prevention --- Disaster relief --- Emergencies --- Emergency management --- Emergency planning --- Emergency preparedness --- Management --- Public safety --- First responders --- Planning --- Preparedness --- Prevention --- Banks and Banking --- Infrastructure --- Public Finance --- Natural Disasters --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Fiscal Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Foreign Aid --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Natural disasters --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Real interest rates --- Public investment spending --- National accounts --- Environment --- Expenditure --- Financial services --- Saving and investment --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Interest rates --- Public investments --- Vanuatu
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From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different, "a fascinating and important book" (Ben Bernanke) about the surprising reasons why paper money lies at the heart of many of the world's most difficult problemsThe world is drowning in cash-and it's making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash, acclaimed economist Kenneth Rogoff explores the past, present, and future of currency, from ancient China to today's cryptocurrencies, showing why, contrary to conventional economic wisdom, paper money surprisingly lies at the heart of some of the world's most difficult problems.Cash is becoming increasingly marginalized in the legal economy, but there is a record amount of it in circulation-
Currency question. --- Interest rates. --- Monetary policy. --- Money. --- Paper money. --- Account (accountancy). --- Alternative currency. --- Alternative payments. --- Bank account. --- Bank of England. --- Bank of Japan. --- Bank run. --- Bank. --- Banknote. --- Ben Bernanke. --- Bitcoin. --- Black market. --- Cash register. --- Cash. --- Central bank. --- Chief economist. --- Consumer. --- Corruption. --- Counterfeit. --- Credit card. --- Cryptocurrency. --- Currency In Circulation. --- Currency. --- Customer. --- Debit card. --- Debt. --- Deflation. --- Deposit account. --- Developed country. --- Digital currency. --- Discounts and allowances. --- Economist. --- Economy. --- Electronic money. --- Employment. --- Euro banknotes. --- European Central Bank. --- Eurozone. --- Exchange rate. --- Federal Reserve Bank. --- Fiat money. --- Financial crisis of 2007–08. --- Financial crisis. --- Financial inclusion. --- Financial institution. --- Financial services. --- Financial transaction. --- Fiscal policy. --- Government bond. --- Government debt. --- Helicopter money. --- Illegal immigration. --- Income. --- Inflation targeting. --- Inflation. --- Interest rate. --- Internal Revenue Service. --- International Monetary Fund. --- John Maynard Keynes. --- Liquidity trap. --- Long run and short run. --- Macroeconomic model. --- Macroeconomics. --- Market liquidity. --- Medium of exchange. --- Monetary authority. --- Money laundering. --- Money supply. --- Nominal interest rate. --- Payment. --- Phase Out. --- Poverty. --- Precious metal. --- Price level. --- Private sector. --- Public finance. --- Quantitative easing. --- Rates (tax). --- Real interest rate. --- Recession. --- Retail. --- Revenue. --- Securitization. --- Seigniorage. --- Stabilization policy. --- Supply (economics). --- Tax evasion. --- Tax rate. --- Tax revenue. --- Tax. --- Taylor rule. --- Technology. --- Treasury Bill. --- Uncertainty. --- Unemployment. --- Unit of account. --- United States dollar. --- Value (economics). --- Virtual currency.
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