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This paper assesses the potential impact of antimicrobial resistance on global economic growth and poverty. The analysis uses a global computable general equilibrium model and a microsimulation framework that together capture impact channels related to health, mortality, labor productivity, health care financing, and production in the livestock and other sectors. The effects spread across countries via trade flows that may be affected by new trade restrictions. Relative to a world without antimicrobial resistance, the losses during 2015-50 may sum to USD 85 trillion in gross domestic product and USD 23 trillion in global trade (in present value). By 2050, the cost in global gross domestic product could range from 1.1 percent (low case) to 3.8 percent (high case). Antimicrobial resistance is expected to make it more difficult to eliminate extreme poverty. Under the high antimicrobial resistance scenario, by 2030, an additional 24.1 million people would be extremely poor, of whom 18.7 million live in low-income countries. In general, developing countries will be hurt the most, especially those with the lowest incomes.

Computable General Equilibrium Modeling --- Economic Growth Of Open Economies --- Health --- Measurement And Analysis Of Poverty

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This paper examines the policy challenges a country faces when it wants to both reduce inflation and maintain a sustainable external position. Mundell’s (1962) policy assignment framework suggests that these two goals may be mutually incompatible unless monetary and fiscal policies are properly coordinated. Unfortunately, if the fiscal authority is unwilling to cooperate—a case of fiscal intransigence—central banks that pursue a disinflation on a ‘go it alone’ basis will cause the country’s external position to further deteriorate. A dynamic analysis shows that if the central bank itself lacks credibility in its inflation goal, it must rely even more on cooperation from the fiscal authority than otherwise. Echoing Sargent and Wallace’s (1981) ‘unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,’ in these circumstances, a ‘go it alone’ policy may successfully stabilize prices and output, but only on a short-term basis.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Fiscal Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Fiscal consolidation --- Real exchange rates --- External debt --- Inflation targeting --- Fiscal policy --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Debts, External --- South Africa

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Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014, this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income distribution are outlined.

Service industries. --- Free trade. --- Free trade and protection --- Trade, Free --- Trade liberalization --- International trade --- Industries --- Service industries --- Free trade --- E-books --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Service --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Trade: General --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- International economics --- Service exports --- Exports --- Trade in services --- Export performance --- Services sector --- Economic sectors --- Balance of trade --- China, People's Republic of

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We analyze the impact on productivity in advanced economies of fast-growing trade with China between the mid-1990s and late-2000s, separately identifying the export and import channels. We use country-sector-level data for 18 advanced economies and, similar to Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), exploit exogenous variation in trade with China in a given country-sector by instrumenting imports from (exports to) China in a given country-sector with the average imports from (exports to) China in the same sector in other advanced economies. Our estimates point to large productivity gains from trading with China—the (exogenous) rise of China in global trade may have increased the level of total factor productivity by about 1.9 percent, or 12.3 percent of the overall increase over the sample period, in the median country-sector. By contrast, using a similar empirical strategy, we find adverse employment effects of Chinese imports in exposed country-industries, consistent with previous studies. Taken together, these findings point to large gains from free trade, while underscoring the scope for a more active policy role in redistributing them, particularly by easing workers’ transition between jobs and industries.

Economic development --- International trade --- China --- Commercial policy. --- E-books --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Commerce --- International economic relations --- Non-traded goods --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Institutions and Growth --- Trade: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Imports --- Exports --- Total factor productivity --- Productivity --- Industrial productivity --- Economic theory --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics