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This book presents a theoretical framework to explain chronic inflation and hyperinflation. The roots of these two phenomenon are a fiscal monetary regime in which money issues finance the public deficit. Chronic inflation is modeled by using both the old and the new Keynesian model, with a different policy rule. Instead of using the Taylor rule, the central bank policy rule states that money is issued to finance the public deficit. The chronic inflation models take into account the fact that indexation mechanisms adjust prices and wages, yielding the inertial component of inflation. The dynamics of these models can be very unstable under parameter changes or shocks that hit the economy. The previous hyperinflation models surveyed in this book attempt to explain hyperinflation as a bubble phenomenon because they assume a constant real deficit financed by money. The mechanics of hyperinflation models in this book explains hyperinflation by a fiscal crisis, characterized by an increasing fiscal deficit. This fiscal crisis yields an intertemporal budget constraint that is not sustainable. The analysis of the pathology of hyperinflation uses the same tools employed to understand the pathologies of public debt and external debt crises. The hyperinflation model allows a taxonomy of hyperinflations, namely bubble, weak and strong, that can be tested with the inflation tax revenue curve. .
Inflation (Finance) --- Tax accounting. --- Tax laws. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Public Finance. --- Business Taxation/Tax Law. --- Finance, Public. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics. --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Taxation --- Finance, Public --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Currency question --- Economics --- Accounting --- Public finances --- Tax laws --- Tax legislation --- Tax regulations --- Law
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This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
Finance, Public. --- Macroeconomics. --- Public finance. --- Economic growth. --- Regional economics. --- Spatial economics. --- Economics. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Economic Growth. --- Public Economics. --- Regional/Spatial Science. --- Public Finance. --- Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Currency question --- Economics --- Regional planning --- Regionalism --- Space in economics --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Public finances --- Spatial economics --- Regional economics
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This book is a non-technical introduction to the history of – and current measurement practice of – inflation for the United Kingdom, with comparative international case studies. The authors describe the historical development of inflation measures in a global context, and do so without using formal mathematical language and related jargon that relates only to a few specialist scholars. Although inflation is a widely used and quoted statistic, and despite the important role inflation plays in real people’s lives – through pension uprating, train tickets, interest rates and the work of economists – few people understand how it is created. O’Neill, Ralph and Smith mix historical data with a description of practices inside the UK statistical system and abroad, which will aid understanding of how this important economic statistic is produced, and the important and controversial choices that statisticians have made over time.
Finance, Public. --- Economic theory. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economic history. --- Economics. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Economic History. --- Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods. --- Economic Systems. --- Public Finance. --- Inflation (Finance) --- History. --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Political Economy/Economic Systems. --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Currency question --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Economic conditions --- History, Economic --- Economics --- Public finances --- Economic policy. --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy
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We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- E-books --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Financial Crises --- Education: General --- Investment & securities --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Education --- Stocks --- Financial crises --- Consumer price indexes --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Price indexes --- Cabo Verde
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This paper focuses on the role of the pass-through of the exchange rate and policydeterminants in driving inflation. Using linear and nonlinear frameworks, the paper finds: (i) after the switch to a floating exchange rate regime in 2012, nonfood prices not only directly influence headline inflation, but also have an significant impact on food inflation via second round effects; (ii) the pass-through of the exchange rate to headline inflation has jumped from zero to 11 percent under the floating regime, after controlling for other factors; (iii) the improved significance of T-bill rates in shaping inflation flags its importance in Malawi’s monetary framework although the monetary transmission mechanism needs further strengthening; (iv) the increased impact of broad money underscores the necessity for fiscal discipline and central bank independence.
Inflation (Finance) --- Exchange rate pass-through. --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Monetary base --- Exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Money --- Money supply --- Malawi
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This book focuses on the implications of the South African labour market dynamics including labour market reforms and fiscal policy for monetary policy and financial stability. Evidence suggests there are benefits in adopting an approach that coordinates labour market policies and reforms, fiscal policy, price and financial stability. In particular, the benefits of coordinating policies present policymakers with policy options in cases where they are confronted by binding policy trade-offs and dilemmas, such as in cases when there is divergence in price and financial and economic growth outcomes. The empirical insights and policy recommendations are based on different techniques that include the counterfactual and endogenous-exogenous approaches, non-linearities introduced by thresholds and the impact of persistent and transitory shock effects. Themes covered in the book include various aspects of labour market conditions and reforms and their link to inflation and inflation expectations, the impact of the national minimum wage, the interaction between public and private sector wage inflation, economic policy uncertainty and employment, government debt thresholds, sovereign yields and debt ratings downgrades, labour productivity, the impact of inflation regimes on expansionary fiscal and monetary policy multipliers, the increase in government cost of funding on price and financial stability and the link between fiscal policy and credit dynamics.
Finance. --- Energy policy. --- Energy and state. --- International Finance. --- African Economics. --- Energy Policy, Economics and Management. --- Labor market --- Fiscal policy --- Monetary policy --- Inflation (Finance) --- Prices --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- International finance. --- Africa—Economic conditions. --- International monetary system --- International money --- International economic relations --- Energy and state --- Power resources --- State and energy --- Industrial policy --- Energy conservation
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This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights a rebound in economic growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran over the course of 2016–17 based on higher oil production. Real GDP grew 7.4 percent in the first half of 2016–17, rebounding from the 2015–16 recession. However, growth in the non-oil sector averaged 0.9 percent, despite having picked up in the second quarter, reflecting continued difficulties in access to financing and domestic financial sector and structural weaknesses. Growth is projected to stabilize at 4.5 percent over the medium term as the recovery broadens. The current account is forecast to remain in surplus as higher exports offset the pickup in imports related to investment.
Fiscal policy --- Inflation (Finance) --- Monetary policy --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Iran --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Public Finance --- Criminology --- Foreign Exchange --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Fiscal Policy --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public finance & taxation --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) --- Prices --- Crime --- Revenue administration --- Taxes --- Banks and banking --- Money laundering --- Revenue --- Iran, Islamic Republic of
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This Selected Issues paper presents an overview of inter-sectoral exposures in Uruguay. The Uruguayan financial system has been characterized by solid balance sheets, a low level of credit, and continued high dollarization since the crisis in 2002. However, pockets of vulnerability remain, especially after the recent slowdown in economic growth. Nonfinancial public sector (NFPS) gross debt is fairly high at 48 percent of GDP. The NFPS as well as the public sector as a whole have a net open foreign currency position. The nonbank financial system also has a large exposure to government debt.
Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- International Monetary Fund --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Banks and Banking --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Pensions --- Pension spending --- Real interest rates --- Foreign exchange --- Income distribution --- Expenditure --- Financial services --- Credit --- Money --- National accounts --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Uruguay
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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Panama’s economy as the fastest growing in Latin America over the past two decades. It is expected to remain among the most dynamic in the region, with stable and low inflation, sustainable public debt, a declining current account deficit, and a stable financial sector. Economic growth moderated to 4.9 percent in 2016 in the face of external headwinds, and inflation and unemployment remain subdued but have risen slightly. Fiscal consolidation continues in line with fiscal rule targets, and public debt is sustainable. Credit growth remains strong, but has begun to slow recently. The outlook is favorable despite heightened external uncertainty.
Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Business and Financial --- Criminology --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Financial services law & regulation --- International economics --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Public debt --- Commercial banks --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Revenue administration --- Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) --- Crime --- Financial institutions --- Debts, Public --- Banks and banking --- Financial services industry --- Law and legislation --- Balance of payments --- Revenue --- Money laundering --- Panama
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