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We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.

Petroleum products --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Refining --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Monetary Policy --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Consumer price indexes --- Inflation targeting --- Commodities --- Monetary policy --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Price indexes --- United States

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This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and medium term, with an average short-term fiscal multiplier of about 0.2. We find some evidence that the effects are larger: (i) during periods of slack; (ii) in economies operating with fixed exchange rate regimes; (iii) in more closed economies; (iv) in countries with lower public debt; and (v) in countries with higher investment efficiency. Finally, we show that increases in public investment tend to lower income inequality.

Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Expectations --- Speculations --- International Economic Order and Integration --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Government Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public investment spending --- Expenditure --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Fiscal multipliers --- Conventional peg --- Public investments --- Expenditures, Public --- Fiscal policy

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The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.

Petroleum industry and trade. --- Petroleum products --- Petroleum --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Energy industries --- Oil industries --- Prices. --- Prices --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: Energy --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Trade: General --- Investment & securities --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- International economics --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Supply shocks --- Oil production --- Export diversification --- Commodities --- Economic theory --- Production --- International trade --- Supply and demand --- Exports --- United States

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State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in Emerging Europe’s economies, notably in the energy and transport sectors. Based on a new firm-level dataset, this paper reviews the SOE landscape, assesses SOE performance across countries and vis-à-vis private firms, and evaluates recent SOE governance reform experience in 11 Emerging European countries, as well as Sweden as a benchmark. Profitability and efficiency of resource allocation of SOEs lag those of private firms in most sectors, with substantial cross-country variation. Poor SOE performance raises three main risks: large and risky contingent liabilities could stretch public finances; sizeable state ownership of banks coupled with poor governance could threaten financial stability; and negative productivity spillovers could affect the economy at large. SOE governance frameworks are partly weak and should be strengthened along three lines: fleshing out a consistent ownership policy; giving teeth to financial oversight; and making SOE boards more professional.

Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Energy --- Industries: Service --- Production and Operations Management --- Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions --- Privatization --- Contracting Out --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Public enterprises --- Energy sector --- Services sector --- Contingent liabilities --- Productivity --- Economic sectors --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Production --- Government business enterprises --- Energy industries --- Service industries --- Fiscal policy --- Industrial productivity --- Sweden

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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights a decline in the real GDP of Trinidad and Tobago of 6 percent in 2016, with a further decline of 3.25 percent projected by the IMF staff in 2017. The combined impact of weak growth and low energy sector revenues increased the overall fiscal deficit to 12.1 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2016, though it is expected to drop to 11.0 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2017. Meanwhile, the current account deteriorated by 14.5 percentage points to a deficit of 10.7 percent of GDP in 2016. The government has taken steps to adjust fiscal imbalances, through efforts to reform the energy tax regime, reduce fuel subsidies, and boost nonenergy revenues.

Trinidad and Tobago --- Economic conditions. --- Republic of Trinidad and Tobago --- República de Trinidad y Tobago --- Torinidaddo Tobago --- Torinidādo Tobago --- Trinidad & Tobago --- Trinidad ja Tobago --- Trinidad och Tobago --- Trinidad-Tobago --- Ṭrinidad ṿe-Ṭobago --- Trinidad y Tobago --- Trinité-et-Tobago --- טרינידד וטובגו --- トリニダッド・トバゴ --- トリニダード・トバゴ --- Tobago (Colony) --- Trinidad --- West Indies (Federation) --- Finance: General --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Industries: Energy --- Civics and Citizenship --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Energy industries & utilities --- Public debt --- Expenditure --- Fiscal policy --- Energy sector --- Energy pricing --- Economic sectors --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Energy industries --- Economic statistics