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Indonesia has experienced strong economic growth and steady poverty reduction over the past decade,but the end of the commodity boom, accompanied by slowing poverty reduction and rising inequality, has put pressure on the country's overall economic development. Indonesia's average annual growth rate was 5.6 percent in the period 2001-12, equivalent to a GDP per capita of about US 3,500 dollars. The national poverty rate was halved to 11.2 percent in the period from 1999 to 2015, largely through sustained growth and job creation. However, the decline in commodity prices and demand slowed growth to 4.8 percent in 2015 and 5.1 percent in 2016. The pace of poverty reduction also began to stagnate around this time, with a near zero decline in 2015, accompanied by rising inequality, from 30 points in 2000 to 41 points by 2014, as measured by the Gini coefficient.
Access To Information --- Debt Management --- Public Finance --- Public Sector Development --- Risk Management --- Transparency
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The Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment aims to provide the government of Albania with an objective up-to-date diagnostic of the national public financial management (PFM) performance based on the latest PEFA methodology. The assessment establishes a new PEFA baseline using the 2016 PEFA methodology and provides an update on changes in performance since the 2011 assessment using the earlier methodology. The process cultivated a shared understanding of PFM performance and those dimensions that require improvement. The results are expected to assist the government in monitoring the implementation and updating of its 2014-2020 Public financial management reform strategy.
Accountability --- Accounting --- Debt Management --- Governance --- Legal Framework --- National Governance --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Management and Reform --- Transparency
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At the request of the Government of Kosovo (GoK), a World Bank (WB) mission visited Kosovo during September 26 to October 04, 2017 to conduct a debt management performance assessment (DeMPA). The objectives of the mission were (i) to assess the strengths and areas of development; (ii) to discuss the authorities' immediate needs for TA and follow-up reform plan activities. This report assesses the debt management performance of the government to manage central government debt by applying the 2015 DeMPA methodology. This is the second evaluation of the government debt performances for the country. The first DeMPA assessment was conducted in 2012. Kosovo also benefitted from a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy mission in February 2017. The mission worked with government officials from Cash and Debt Management Department (CDMD) of the Treasury, an agency of Ministry of Finance (MoF), as the main counter party. Meetings were also held with the Central Bank of Kosovo (CBK), National Audit Office (NAO), Kosovo Pension Savings Fund (KPSF), and three primary dealer banks, as well as with various units of the MoF, including human resources, legal office and internal audit. The mission agenda and the list of officials met during the mission are included in Annex 1. The main findings of this assessment along the five main areas of the DeMPA methodology are summarized below. Overall, there have been noteworthy improvements in various areas of debt management, including strategy development, domestic borrowing, debt reporting and recording. Challenges mainly arise from staffing constraints, which induce a high level of operational risk.
Debt Management --- Debt Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Public Debt --- Public Sector Development
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This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for strengthening cash management and reviewing of the treasury single account in Uganda. The Cash Management Guidelines in Uganda have been approved. The coverage of the cash resource pool must be precisely defined and non-budget flows excluded. The cash flow forecasting model should continue to be developed along the lines given in previous Technical Assistance reports. The publication and dissemination of the Guidelines will provide authority to the Cash Policy Department to implement a program of training and capacity building within the central government entities in coordination with other directorates of the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. This should be started as soon as the Guidelines are released.
Uganda--Economic policy. --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Government cash management --- Treasury Single Account --- Government cash forecasting --- Government debt management --- Currencies --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Money --- Finance, Public --- Debts, Public --- Uganda --- Economic policy.
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This paper discusses Morocco’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2014 Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement. The case of Morocco demonstrated that with strong ownership, parsimonious conditionality can be effective in delivering on program commitments. The PLL arrangement with Morocco was successful in helping to reduce vulnerabilities. Fiscal balances improved, and the fiscal objective—a gradual reduction of the budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2017—appropriately balanced the need to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down closer to 60 percent in the medium term, while allowing for necessary investment and social spending. Going forward, to achieve higher and more inclusive growth, Morocco will require continued strong policies and accelerated fiscal and structural reforms.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Finance --- Public debt --- Government debt management --- Fiscal policy --- Oil prices --- Expenditure --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Morocco
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This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Public debt --- External debt --- Government debt management --- Oil prices --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- United States
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The Executive Board approved a two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement with Morocco in July 2014. The arrangement followed the 2012–14 PLL arrangement, and sought to build on the progress made in the previous two years. The authorities kept their objective of strengthening macroeconomic stability and promoting stronger and more job-rich growth. They committed to use the backstop provided by the PLL-supported program to help continue reducing vulnerabilities in the fiscal and external sectors, notably by reducing the fiscal and current account deficits. Per the authorities’ request, access was lower than under the previous PLL arrangement, equivalent to 550 percent of quota (about SDR 3.24billion).
Currency --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, Public --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Exports and Imports --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Government debt management --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Oil prices --- Prices --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Sovereign Debt --- Morocco
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This Selected Issues paper analyzes budget financing options and their potential macro-financial implications for Kuwait. With large financial buffers and low debt, Kuwait has substantial room to finance the emerging fiscal deficits. The financing strategy should be underpinned by sound institutional and legal reforms and geared toward the development of the domestic debt markets. A balanced mix of asset drawdown and borrowing from a diversified investor base (nonresidents, domestic banks and nonbank financial institutions) would help mitigate negative implications for the economy and develop the corporate debt market.
Finance. --- Finance --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- International Financial Markets --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Oil prices --- Public debt --- Government debt management --- Debt management --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Asset and liability management --- Commercial banks --- Financial institutions --- Debts, Public --- Banks and banking --- Labor market --- Asset-liability management --- Kuwait --- Income economics
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The global surge in independent fiscal councils (IFCs) raises three related questions: How can IFCs improve the conduct of fiscal policy? Are they simultaneously desirable for voters and elected policymakers? And are they resilient to changes in political conditions? We build a model in which voters cannot observe the true competence of elected policymakers. IFCs’ role is to mitigate this imperfection. Equilibrium public debt is excessive because policymakers are “partisan” and “opportunistic.” If voters only care about policymakers’ competence, both the incumbent and the voters would be better off with an IFC as the debt bias would shrink. However, when other considerations eclipse competence and give the incumbent a strong electoral advantage or disadvantage, setting up an IFC may be counterproductive as the debt bias would increase. If the incumbent holds a moderate electoral advantage or disadvantage, voters would prefer an IFC, but an incumbent with a large advantage may prefer not to have an IFC. The main policy implications are that (i) establishing an IFC can only lower the debt bias if voters care sufficiently about policymakers’ competence; (ii) not all political environments are conducive to the emergence of IFCs; and (iii) IFCs are consequently vulnerable to shifts in political conditions.
Fiscal policy. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal policy --- Public debt --- Fiscal councils --- Fiscal rules --- Fiscal transparency --- Debts, Public --- Netherlands, The
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This Article IV Consultation highlights that Senegal’s macroeconomic situation is stable. Growth is expected to exceed 6 percent in 2016, while inflation remains low. The fiscal deficit has been declining steadily from 5.5 percent of GDP in 2013 and is projected to reach 4.2 percent of GDP in 2016. The current account deficit has narrowed and is projected to reach 6.5 percent of GDP in 2016, driven by lower oil prices and improved export performance. The outlook for the Senegalese economy is positive and risks are manageable, provided there is a concerted effort to continue improving economic governance.
Senegal --- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Industries: Financial Services --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Finance --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public debt --- Public financial management (PFM) --- External debt --- Government debt management --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Finance, Public --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Revenue
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