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We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.
Banks and Banking --- Investments: Commodities --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Finance: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Commodity Markets --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Commodity prices --- Bank credit --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodities --- Prices --- Money --- Credit --- Banks and banking --- Commercial products --- Nigeria
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To derive real GDP, the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) recommends a technique called double deflation. Some countries use single deflation techniques, which fail to capture important relative price changes and introduce estimation errors in official GDP growth. We simulate the effects of single deflation to the GDP data of eight countries that use double deflation. We find that errors due to single deflation can be significant, but their magnitude and direction are not systematic over time and across countries. We conclude that countries still using single deflation should move to double deflation.
Gross domestic product --- Deflation (Finance) --- Econometric models. --- Disinflation --- Finance --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Commodity Markets --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodity prices --- Consumption --- Deflation --- Economics --- Environment and Growth --- Environmental Accounts --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- National accounts --- National income --- Price indexes --- Price Level --- Prices --- Saving --- Wealth --- Japan
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