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Deal or No Deal : Strictly Business for China in Kenya?
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Existing work on China's economic influence in Africa refers to Africa in broad terms, thereby generalizing the results to an extent that is unhelpful for policy-makers in a specific country. Moreover, the emphasis is on oil exporters. This paper remedies this by focusing on a single, oil-importing country: Kenya. The paper examines China's economic presence in Kenya and some of the popular myths surrounding Chinese economic activity. The first myth is that Chinese companies do not employ local workers. In fact, 78 percent of full-time and 95 percent of part-time employees in Chinese companies are locals. Second, although China represents a large potential market for local exporters, the study finds that China has a better chance of expanding its exports to Kenya than Kenya does to China based on existing specializations. This may change with recent oil discoveries in Kenya, increasing the space for Kenyan exports to China, as well as from China's shift to a consumption-driven economy which will increase demand for services, a growing strength of Kenya's economy (World Bank Country Economic Memorandum 2016). The paper emphasizes that Kenyan policy makers should be less concerned about bilateral trade imbalances and worry about Kenya's overall trade balance. However, the Standard Gauge Railway and Thika superhighway experiences suggest that Chinese firms offer relatively few technology transfer or supplier opportunities for local firms and academia. Third, the popular focus of Chinese competition is on the impact on well-organized Kenyan producers and not on consumers, thereby underestimating the benefits Kenyan consumer derive from the availability of more affordable Chinese goods. The paper concludes with policy directions for improving export competitiveness and transparency in infrastructure projects, and local content.


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Dodging Bullets : The Heterogeneous Effect of Political Violence on Greenfield FDI
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The relationship between political violence and greenfield foreign direct investment is contingent on the type of violence, characteristics of the investment-receiving sector, and extent to which the investing firm is geographically diversified. This paper presents an analysis with a dynamic fixed effects model for a panel of 90 developing countries from 2003 to 2012. The analysis shows that nationwide political conflict is negatively associated with total and non-resource-related greenfield foreign direct investment, but not with resource-related greenfield foreign direct investment. The insensitivity to political conflict of multinational firms in the resource sector is associated with the high profitability of natural resource extraction and the companies' geographic constraints on location choice during the period of estimation. In the non-resource sector, the less geographically diversified firms are most sensitive to the risk of conflict.


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A Difficult Relationship : Declining (but Productive) FDI Inflows in Turkey
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper assesses two research questions: has the presence of foreign firms contributed to productivity increases in Turkey, and how could Turkey increase foreign direct investment inflows? First, the analysis applies dynamic regressions in differences over an AMADEUS firm-level data set. Similar to the results for other emerging countries, Turkish firms that received foreign direct investment will see an increase in productivity after the fourth year. The paper finds evidence of negative but small competition spillovers over domestic firms in the same sector of the multinational, as well as positive and large knowledge spillovers to domestic firms in broader two-digit sectors. This finding constitutes a case for foreign direct investment attraction policies in Turkey. Second, based on the findings of the cross-country regressions, the paper argues that Turkey could increase its attractiveness to foreign investors by strengthening institutional quality, in particular the rule of law, and mitigating exchange rate volatility.


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Trade and Investment Implications of Brexit
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Brexit) may have a negative impact on trade and investment flows not just for the UK, but also for the countries with the largest exposure to the UK. The indirect impact of a Brexit-induced recession in the UK -may also be felt in the EU because of the two countries' strong trade, investment, and financial linkages. The magnitude of these impacts will depend on the type of trade relationship that the UK negotiates with the EU, the duration of the negotiations, and the market confidence in the leadership of the UK, EU and other mayor players during the transition period. The major effect of the Brexit vote is the withdrawal of the UK from the EU project of deep economic integration, raising the possibility that the same doubts that gave rise to Brexit lead to an interruption of trade openness and integration in other parts of the world. International development institutions like the World Bank Group can play an important role in informing debates in this area.


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International Financial Integration of East Asia and Pacific
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper documents how economies in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have integrated financially with the rest of the world since the 1990s. First, the region is increasingly more connected with itself and with other economies. Although economies in the North capture the bulk of the region's investments, EAP's connectivity with the South has grown relatively faster. Second, the largest economies in the region (China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore) account for most of EAP's cross-border investments. Third, compared with the other South regions, EAP displays a higher level of intraregional and outward investments, reflecting the region's role as a net capital exporter. The differences with South regions are persistent over time. Although EAP lags behind as a destination of foreign investments, inflows to developing EAP economies are comparable to those to other South regions. Fourth, EAP's financial integration is related to its international trade patterns.


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Oecd investment policy reviews.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 9264257365 9264257357 9789264257368 Year: 2016 Publisher: Paris, France : Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,

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Ukraine’s post-Maidan authorities have embarked upon an ambitious reform programme to improve the country’s framework for investment and strengthen the country as an attractive investment destination. This review, which was prepared in close cooperation with the Ukrainian authorities in response to their 2011 request to adhere to the Declaration on International Investment and Multinational Enterprises (OECD Declaration), analyses the general investment framework as well as recent reform, and shows where further efforts are necessary. It assesses Ukraine’s ability to comply with the principles of openness, transparency and non-discrimination and its policy convergence with international investment standards such as the OECD Declaration. In light of the recently updated OECD Policy Framework for Investment, it also studies other areas such as investment promotion and facilitation, infrastructure development; financial sector development and responsible business conduct practices. In the scarcely two years since a new attempt at economic reforms was launched in earnest, Ukraine has made quite important progress in introducing a modern legal framework for investment. But additional efforts are required in some policy areas to reaffirm Ukraine’s attractiveness for investors.  


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South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2016 : Investment Reality Check.
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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South Asia defies a sluggish world economy and continues its path of gradual acceleration during 2016. Led by a solid India, the region remains a global growth hot spot. While South Asian economies proved resilient vis-A-vis external headwinds such as China's slowdown or uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in advanced economies, some are beginning to feel the sting from slowing remittance flows or waning oil price dividends. Against this backdrop of relative stability but fading tailwinds, India is set to grow at 7.6 percent in 2016, the same speed as in 2015, but may increase its pace again in 2017 to 7.7 percent. The region will remain steadfast in the face of future volatility and is expected to grow at 7.1 percent in 2016, however, its medium term performance strongly hinges on investment and exports. Downside risks are concentrated around political uncertainty as well as fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. While export growth is set to return to positive territory, it will deliver only gradually as global demand picks up. A reality check reveals that private investment - the key future growth driver across South Asia - is yet to be ignited to sustain and further increase the pace of economic activity.


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The overseas private investment corporation
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ISBN: 1634857291 9781634857291 1634857283 9781634857284 Year: 2016 Publisher: New York


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Bridging the gap between international investment law and the environment
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ISBN: 9462743517 9789462743519 9789462365872 9462365873 9789462365872 9789460943519 Year: 2016 Volume: 4 Publisher: The Hague, the Netherlands


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Learning or Leaning : Persistent and Transitory Growth Spillovers from FDI
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Using firm-level data for Jordan, the paper estimates the extent to which growth spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local firms stem from persistent learning externalities (i.e., they endure even after foreign investment leaves as knowledge has been transferred to local firms) or from transitory effects (e.g., demand increases that evaporate following isinvestment). The paper find that spillovers have a significant transitory nature, with employment and capital growth declining when FDI falls, particularly in downstream industries supplied by locals. This suggests that if FDI-attracting policies are intended to promote sustainable growth, it may be more effective to attract and retain FDI via long-term structural policies, for instance, through low corporate tax rates rather than temporary tax holidays or through policies that strengthen the domestic absorptive capacity and linkages between foreign and local firms.

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