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Business cycles --- Credit --- Exports --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles
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Based on a data series of more than 50 years, this book discusses spatial and seasonal variability in air-mass and frontal extreme precipitation frequency and as well as the relationship between their occurrence and atmospheric circulation. The climatology of air-mass and frontal extreme precipitation is presented for the first time on a European scale. Since there is no robust, automatic method of locating atmospheric fronts, this challenging task has to be performed manually. Moreover, there is limited availability of the complex sub-daily data that is necessary to recognize the dynamic of meteorological fronts. The results show a clear regional and seasonal variety in the relationship between extreme precipitation occurrence and atmospheric circulation depending on precipitation origin. The probability of air-mass and frontal precipitation occurrence provides crucial information for studies in predictability and modeling. This book is intended for students, specialists in the field of climatology and climate change, climate process modelers, and other experts for whom extreme precipitation is important.x.
Earth sciences. --- Climatology. --- Meteorology. --- Atmospheric sciences. --- Earth Sciences. --- Atmospheric Sciences. --- Precipitation (Meteorology) --- Precipitation anomalies --- Air masses --- Anomalies, Precipitation --- Fluctuations, Precipitation --- Precipitation fluctuations --- Atmospheric circulation --- Fronts (Meteorology) --- Climatic changes --- Water --- Weather --- Cloud physics --- Aerology --- Atmospheric science --- Climate --- Climate science --- Climate sciences --- Science of climate --- Atmospheric sciences --- Earth sciences --- Atmosphere
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This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding is that the impact of China growth shocks on ASEAN has risen since the global financial crisis. A one percent decline in China’s growth implies a 0.3 percent reduction in growth for ASEAN EMEs and 0.2 for FDEs. An important component of inflation is also shared between ASEAN and China. These magnitudes are double what they were two decades ago due to stronger trade and financial linkages. Finally, a slowdown in China, while having real effects, also has a financial impact via slower credit growth and lower equity prices. This is in line with the existence of both portfolio balance and signaling channels, in which ASEAN market participants absorb news on China economic activity as an indicator over domestic growth prospects.
China --- Southeast Asia --- Foreign economic relations --- Asia, Southeast --- Asia, Southeastern --- South East Asia --- Southeastern Asia --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic growth --- Economic recession --- Financial cycles --- Business cycles --- Asset prices --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Prices --- Recessions --- China, People's Republic of
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For US postwar data, the paper explains central consumption, labor, investment and output correlations and volatilities along with output growth persistence by including a human capital investment sector and a variable physical capital utilization rate. Strong internal "amplication" results from an economy-wide productivity shock across goods and human capital investment sectors that has variances 10,000 fold smaller than in the standard RBC TFP shock. Simulated moments are compared to data moments for the business cycle, the low frequency and the Medium Cycle frequency, as well as the high frequency. A metric is provided to gauge that the results have an average of 46% deviation of simulated moments from data moments, for a broad array of targets across all windows. Within this array, key correlations have only a 15% deviation in the business cycle window, and growth persistence only an 8% deviation in the low frequency, which indicates good "propagation". Countercyclic human capital investment time and procyclic physical capital capacity utilization rates are also found as in data.
Business cycles --- Human capital --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Neoclassical --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Trade: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Labor Economics: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Total factor productivity --- Capacity utilization --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- Industrial capacity --- United States
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Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
Economic forecasting --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Forecasting --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Economic Forecasting --- Economic growth --- Current account balance --- Business cycles --- Balance of payments --- Prices --- United States
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This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
Business cycles. --- Globalization. --- Commerce. --- Trade --- Economics --- Business --- Transportation --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Traffic (Commerce) --- Merchants --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Globalization --- Business Fluctuations --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Globalization: General --- Finance --- International economics --- Economic growth --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial integration --- Trade integration --- Business cycles --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Financial markets --- Economic integration --- International finance --- International economic integration --- United States
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Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset covering 48 non-renewable commodity exporters for the period 1970-2014, we investigate whether fiscal policy does indeed play a stabilizing role. Our analysis shows that fiscal policy tends to have a procyclical bias (mainly via expenditures) and, contrary to others, we do not find evidence that this bias has declined in recent years. Adoption of fiscal rules does not seem to reduce procyclicality in a significant way, but the quality of political institutions does matter. Finally, non-commodity revenues tend to respond only to persistent changes in commodity prices.
Fiscal policy. --- Business cycles. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Investments: Commodities --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Natural Resources --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Commodity Markets --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Commodity prices --- Commodities --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Fiscal policy --- Expenditure --- Prices --- Commercial products --- Expenditures, Public --- Chile
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What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.
Business cycles --- Inflation (Finance) --- Capital productivity --- Capital output ratios --- Productivity of capital --- Industrial productivity --- Production (Economic theory) --- Government productivity --- Labor productivity --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- E-books --- Business cycles. --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: General --- Business Fluctuations --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy --- Econometric Modeling: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic growth --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Inflation targeting --- Econometric models --- Short term interest rates --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Econometric analysis --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- United States
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The historic Paris Agreement on climate change sets the course for a fundamental transformation of the global economy over the next decades. The Agreement’s overarching goal of limiting global average temperature rise to “well below 2°C” will entail profound changes in the global energy system. Achieving the deep cuts in global carbon emissions that this vision requires is no small task given the enormous challenge of implementing – and eventually exceeding – current country climate pledges. This publication examines key sectors, technologies, and policy measures that will be central in the transition to a lowcarbon energy system. It addresses the following questions: What are the roles of coal and gas in meeting the stringent decarbonisation requirements for the power sector consistent with IEA modelling of global climate goals? What are moderate carbon prices accomplishing in the electricity sector, and how can they be helpful as part of a package of other policies? Where are the opportunities for expanding renewables and energy efficiency, and what policies and regulatory frameworks are needed to boost these low-carbon energy sources? How can state-owned companies, which produce a large share of global GHG emissions but are also major developers of clean energy, be encouraged to play a more effective role in the energy transition? This report also looks at building climate resilience in the energy sector, and the use of tracking tools and metrics to monitor the progress of energy sector decarbonisation. Finally, it provides global energy and emissions data, including interregional comparisons and in-depth analysis for ten regions.
Energy policy --- Climatic changes. --- Environmental aspects. --- Changes, Climatic --- Changes in climate --- Climate change --- Climate change science --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic changes --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Climatology --- Climate change mitigation --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- Environmental aspects --- Global environmental change
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"This book addresses environmental changes and how they reconfigure society's relationship to the future. It argues that Man does not build "his" future alone: instead, environmental changes are also proof of the future-making capacity of non-human beings. The author elaborates on the notion of the futures of Nature by drawing on theoretical contributions by recent ground-breaking literature in the field of environmental humanities. The book also builds on a sociological investigation into the practices implemented by environmental scientists, experts and managers confronted with environmental changes. Thinking of nature in terms of its futures requires us to overcome the rooted philosophical tradition that associates nature with permanence and society with creative change. This is a daunting task which can only be successful if we look beyond the long-lasting influence of the human-centered categories of innovation, development and civilization that social sciences have themselves contributed to coining. We need to consider the active capacities of change and transformation of living beings and matter itself. This book is of academic interest, but is also for managers in different fields and areas affected by environmental changes."--Page 4 of cover.
Environmental Sciences --- Earth & Environmental Sciences --- Global environmental change. --- Climatic changes --- Philosophy. --- Social aspects. --- Changes, Climatic --- Changes in climate --- Climate change --- Climate change science --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Climatology --- Climate change mitigation --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- Environmental change, Global --- Global change, Environmental --- Global environmental changes --- Change --- Ecology --- Environmental aspects --- Global environmental change
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