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The paper offers a non-probabilistic framework for representation of uncertainty in the context of a simple linear-quadratic model of fiscal adjustment. Instead of treating model disturbances as random variables with known probability distributions, it is only assumed that they belong to some pre-specified compact set. Such an approach is appropriate when the decision maker does not have enough information to form probabilistic beliefs or when considerations for robustness are important. Solution of the model in the minimax sense when disturbance sets are ellipsoids is obtained and the application of the method is illustrated using the example of Portugal.

Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Statistical Decision Theory --- Operations Research --- Optimization Techniques --- Programming Models --- Dynamic Analysis --- Computational Techniques --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Output gap --- Fiscal multipliers --- Fiscal stance --- Public debt --- Fiscal consolidation --- Production --- Economic theory --- Debts, Public --- Portugal

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This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle.

Banks and banking --- Petroleum products --- Econometric models. --- Prices --- Asset requirements --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks --- Business cycles --- Business Fluctuations --- Capital adequacy requirements --- Computational Techniques --- Credit --- Cycles --- Depository Institutions --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Finance --- Financial cycles --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial institutions --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial services law & regulation --- Industries: Financial Services --- Loans --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- Mortgages --- Nonperforming loans --- Oil prices --- United Arab Emirates